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Strange I think AAPL is the incredibly obvious choice here. If Amazon grows their revenue at 40% every year (like they did in 2011) and manages a 3.5% margin (
by Steko 14y ago
Strange I think AAPL is the incredibly obvious choice here.
If Amazon grows their revenue at 40% every year (like they did in 2011) and manages a 3.5% margin (which they did for years although lower at the moment) then they will start seeing profits like AAPL's 2012 around 2021.
Meanwhile if AAPL grows at only 15% a year (and the trend is currently much higher) their numbers will have quadrupled in 10 years.
Keep those same growth rates and sometime around 2028 AMZN surpasses AAPL in annual profits; right around the time they hit $15 trillion in annual revenue.
I'm not all that confident that Apple can grow for 10 or even 15 years at any rate. There's a substantial risk that it all falls apart and we're all watching Zuck put his company logo on the new Apple headquarters when it finally opens. But the idea that Amazon has some magic profit engine that's going to appear sometime way down the road and justify their P/E ratio isn't just crazy, it's bananas. If anything they're already starting to succumb to the law of large numbers.