I agree with you to a point. However, one of the big problems as I see it is that we don't have any clue what creates consciousness, and can't even agree what d

I agree with you to a point. However, one of the big problems as I see it is that we don't have any clue what creates consciousness, and can't even agree what defines consciousness. It is very difficult to create something when you're not sure what the goal is. I think the writer of the article I linked to makes some good points, but I don't necessarily agree with everything he says. I think the problem with trying to predict something like that is that it is not fully a technological problem. We can make predictions about when the technology will be potentially capable of housing an intelligence, but it is much more difficult to predict when we might understand intelligence and consciousness enough to duplicate it. It could suddenly happen with the next few decades, or it might never happen.