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As I understand--and please be aware I'm only working off public information here--no. North Korea is well aware they cannot wage a war of aggression nor can th
by troutwine 14y ago
As I understand--and please be aware I'm only working off public information here--no. North Korea is well aware they cannot wage a war of aggression nor can they sustain a defensive posture. They've been aware of this for 40+ years and have had time to prepare. Their only effective military option is to make the cost of defeating them so prohibitively high that no nation will dare. To this end they've riddled the mountains near the DMZ with tunnels for logistic resupply and as firing positions. These tunnels admit the movement of men and material out of sight of overhead spy planes and, now, satellites. The DPKR easily has thousands of tunnels at its disposal.
It's entirely possible that the US and its allies have mapped the endpoints of these tunnels and _could_ simultaneously bombard them all, but if even 10% were missed Seoul could be absolutely decimated. (There are reports that South Korean and US special forces make incursions into the North to discover and map tunnels, so I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of unknowns is much higher than 10%.)
Interestingly, if Seoul and other populated areas were to be moved--that is, its 15 million citizens collectively abandoned the city and rebuilt, say, 100 miles away from the DMZ--this strategic advantage of the DPRK would be voided. Ignoring the staggering cost of this, it's probable that the North would view such action as provocation to war and act accordingly.
From the field of possible responses to North Korea it's entirely possible that waiting for it to burn itself out may well be the least costly tactic, measured by unnatural human deaths. That means, of course, that the DPRK's concentration camps and system of repression must be tolerated until such horrors lead to the destruction of the government from internal forces. Personally, I find this morally repugnant and I pity any world leaders that must choose the waiting game.
- dsl 14y agoThe Imnam Dam on the Bukhan River is North Korea's "I win" button. It's holding back roughly 3 BILLION gallons of water and wired with explosives that can be remotely detonated from Pyongyang. If it were to fail or be destroyed Seoul would look like New Orleans within the hour. The south spent $500 million dollars building the Peace Dam downstream in an attempt to defend against flooding, but it is still a very credible threat. General consensus of American boots on the ground in South Korea is that the North Koreans will be in Seoul (or what is left of it) within 48 hours. Everyone drills for rapid evac. The picture we like to paint is that they are inept starving fools, but they have been planning and drilling non-stop longer than some other countries have even existed.
- lostlogin 14y agoAbsolutely decimated. And the remaining 90% was unscathed.
- troutwine 14y agoI'm sorry, I don't understand your comment. You might mean one of two things: 1. There could be some confusion as to what is left undestroyed by 10%. I intended that figure to refer to the DPRK's tunnels, but especially the artillery capable tunnel mouths, not Seoul itself. 2. You may be employing a single definition of 'decimate', namely 'to take a tenth part of, tithe'. I doubt you mean the historical Roman practice of killing every tenth man, chosen by lot, of a legion. I kindly note that 'to destroy a large percentage of' is a a commonly accepted English usage of 'decimate'. It may be the most common usage, especially as knowledge of latin roots is not widespread.
- wildwood 14y agoThe second one is a pet peeve of mine. For anybody who's familiar with the traditional meaning, the newer meaning is actively confusing, since both mean destruction, but only differ by degree. Are there really not enough words for destroy/crush/obliterate/etc, that another one needs to be created?
- knowaveragejoe 14y agoWell, the tunnels near the border aren't really an offensive threat to SK, but regardless I'd be willing to bet that technologies like SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar) and others we don't know about have already been used to map the majority of their tunnels near the border. Considering the massive defense expenditure by the South, I'm equally sure they are keeping close tabs on the activities of the DPRK military in general. I think the real concern is the dam mentioned in another comment combined with boots-on-the-ground invasion, attempting to overwhelm through sheer numbers(would be short-lived as the preparations for which would no doubt be noticed beforehand). If Seoul installs an Iron Dome-like system similar to Israel(but on a much larger scale) it would render any remaining artillery bombardment from the North mostly ineffective(as SK and US forces would likely hit the majority of their installations very quickly): http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000799298&fid=1725 http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=10007...