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You might think many HN visitors are "foolishly naive," and I would respond no: HN is instead full of too many people who believe that they're somehow less naiv

You might think many HN visitors are "foolishly naive," and I would respond no: HN is instead full of too many people who believe that they're somehow less naive than everyone else. I'm not an experienced trader, but I know about the efficient-markets hypothesis and that analyses such as this one are often "priced-in" to a certain extent. But when the market opens on Tuesday, AAPL is going to go up or down. "Underpriced" is a measure that can only be fully assessed in retrospect -- if AAPL goes up on Tuesday, it was underpriced tonight. You're right that there are tens of thousands of large players with billions, all trying to screw each other over. I believe that 100%. But there's still room in there for Joe Normal to buy some AAPL stock. If his hunch is correct, the stock will go up in value and he'll make money. Individual people still make money trading stocks, and it's "naive" to think it's solely based on luck.

corresation 14y ago
It shall be seen what happens on Tuesday. I am not discounting that there are unknowns that will surprise the market. In that sense the market is like betting, albeit based upon hints and rumors and misinformation. The market is speculative. A lot of people are speculating that Apple's best days are past them -- which is how $9 billion worth of AAPL was sold in the $500 range on Friday -- while a lot of people are speculating that it is still a growth company. Those competing interests set the market price (and FWIW those who bought at $700 -- if they actually still believed in that entrance price, would be doubling down right now for dollar-cost averaging, which itself would pull the price up). What I said above is not at all what the conspiracy theory is, which is where everyone apparently thinks everything is fantastic and it's going to shoot to the moon and there is no uncertainty or risk, but for options reasons everyone is looking the other way for a couple of weeks/months and letting it slide because something-something-options. Market manipulation absolutely happens, and it happens a lot. However it generally targets low volume, low cap, low interest equities, or less common instruments like resource futures. It would be incredibly expensive to manipulate AAPL, it being one of the most watched, most traded equities.

corresation 14y ago

It shall be seen what happens on Tuesday. I am not discounting that there are unknowns that will surprise the market. In that sense the market is like betting, albeit based upon hints and rumors and misinformation. The market is speculative. A lot of people are speculating that Apple's best days are past them -- which is how $9 billion worth of AAPL was sold in the $500 range on Friday -- while a lot of people are speculating that it is still a growth company. Those competing interests set the market price (and FWIW those who bought at $700 -- if they actually still believed in that entrance price, would be doubling down right now for dollar-cost averaging, which itself would pull the price up). What I said above is not at all what the conspiracy theory is, which is where everyone apparently thinks everything is fantastic and it's going to shoot to the moon and there is no uncertainty or risk, but for options reasons everyone is looking the other way for a couple of weeks/months and letting it slide because something-something-options. Market manipulation absolutely happens, and it happens a lot. However it generally targets low volume, low cap, low interest equities, or less common instruments like resource futures. It would be incredibly expensive to manipulate AAPL, it being one of the most watched, most traded equities.