5 ms·

Fairly tempted to put in an order for some AAPL now...

by ajaymehta 14y ago

btian 14y ago
Wait till earnings announcement. Could be a disappointment.
- ajaymehta 14y ago
  Thanks. But do you think it'll gap up on Tuesday when markets open?
  - btian 14y ago
    I don't know. Earning conference call happens at 5pm EST, after the market closes. Just saying that if you're an investor as opposed to a short-term trader, there isn't that much difference between 500 and 550 if it's going up to 1000, and there isn't much difference between 500 and 450 if it's going down to 200. Of course many people will disagree but hindsight is always going to be 20/20, and many people like to pretend that they know something.
    - ajaymehta 14y ago
      Right -- good call. Thanks for the advice.
- confluence 14y ago
  The way both of you are talking about trading this stock indicates that you both aren't qualified to trade. But then again - there aren't any tests to pass before one can trade - so trade away. But remember - you both look like dancing pigeons to professional traders (http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Skinner_box http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Skinner_box).
  - btian 14y ago
    I already own 10 shares of AAPL way before it went up to 500/700. Not selling anyway. Just saying... I'm not a trader in any way or form.
  - _croz 14y ago
    > The way both of you are talking about trading this stock indicates that you both aren't qualified to trade. But then again - there aren't any tests to pass before one can trade - so trade away. But remember - you both look like dancing pigeons to professional traders Professional traders like this cat? http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/14/169326326/housecat-beats-investors-in-stock-market-challenge http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/14/169326326/housecat...
  - encoderer 14y ago
    Oh, come on. It's not hard to make money in the market. It's not hard to see real, after-tax, inflation adjusted gains. Carefully picking companies in a buy-and-hold strategy is a reliable place to park your money for 3-8% growth. These guys aren't pretending to be day-traders. Looking at fund performance, as I'm sure you know, very very few managed funds beat the market with any consistency. There's too much hand-wavy "the big banks and funds play the little guy as a pawn" paranoia. Yes, you can make yourself a pawn by trying to play Gordon Gecko with your E-Trade account. But cost-averaging into a stock that you chose and believe in is both effective and open to everybody. And who knows. There are well told stories of amateur investors making literally billions of dollars finding holes in option contracts that the hedge funds and IBanks missed.
    - ajaymehta 14y ago
      Thank you.
    - thingylab 14y ago
      Care to share one of these "well told stories of amateur investors making literally billions of dollars finding holes in option contracts that the hedge funds and IBanks missed" ?
      - encoderer 14y ago
        http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827 http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0...
        confluence 14y ago
        None of them were amateurs.
        encoderer 14y ago
        BS. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall_Capital http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall_Capital They started with $100k pooled together from 3 guys' life savings. How much did they make? Exactly. The wikipedia article, short as it is, covers through 2010 when that $100k grew to "100 to 300 Million." Read the latest write-up of them in FT. It's a billion dollar venture now.
corresation 14y ago
If you actually believe that it's "artificial", then sure. There are hundreds of billions of dollars looking for situations like this, if the money managers actually believed the absurd conspiracy theories. Many HN visitors seems foolishly naive in the belief that a couple of players make the market (clearly because they have a personal interest. Never before have I seen such an interest in the stock market, or this feeling of profound victimization because it doesn't always move in one direction), when there are tens of thousands of very large players in the market, all of which want to screw every other player to the greatest extent possible. If AAPL were underpriced, there would be enormous buy pressure to the point that it is no longer underpriced. (Sidenote: Among one of the loudest proponents of the conspiracy theory is John Gruber, who today proclaimed that $500 proved it. Only the article he linked actually said $550. It turns out that there are psychological pivot points that are often hit nearing close. The market is made by people, and people understand and gravitate to emotional numbers)
- ChuckMcM 14y ago
  Whenever someone pitches me some 'sure fire' deal that will get me 12 - 15% returns for sure, I ask the obvious question which is "Why did all the rich people who have hundreds of people on staff searching to find these deals pass you by so that you could pitch me?" Kind of fun to watch them try to wriggle through the pitch.
  - ajaymehta 14y ago
    Clearly, you should be skeptical of anyone offering a "surefire deal" on anything. Skepticism is healthy and good. But suppose the founders of Airbnb came to you when they were raising angel money. I'm sure they were convinced at that time (maybe objectively irrationally) that investing in their company was a "surefire deal." They were passed on by Fred Wilson (the equivalent of your "rich person with hundreds of staff"), among countless others I'm sure. By this point, their returns are certainly far more than 12-15%.
    - ChuckMcM 14y ago
      And there risk is higher than 'surefire' :-) I've invested in, been part of, and advised startups so I understand those risks. And, for example when FB stock dropped to 17 I bought a chunk and put a limit order to sell it at $28 (I ended up getting it at 18 and my limit order was purchase + $10) But again, it was a lot riskier than "surefire". When people guarantee results without risk, that is when I say "oh really? and just how do you do that?" There are lots of ideas, but the tried and true one is 'Ponzi Scheme' :-)

Fairly tempted to put in an order for some AAPL now...

btian 14y ago

Wait till earnings announcement. Could be a disappointment.

ajaymehta 14y ago
Thanks. But do you think it'll gap up on Tuesday when markets open?
- btian 14y ago
  I don't know. Earning conference call happens at 5pm EST, after the market closes. Just saying that if you're an investor as opposed to a short-term trader, there isn't that much difference between 500 and 550 if it's going up to 1000, and there isn't much difference between 500 and 450 if it's going down to 200. Of course many people will disagree but hindsight is always going to be 20/20, and many people like to pretend that they know something.
  - ajaymehta 14y ago
    Right -- good call. Thanks for the advice.
confluence 14y ago
The way both of you are talking about trading this stock indicates that you both aren't qualified to trade. But then again - there aren't any tests to pass before one can trade - so trade away. But remember - you both look like dancing pigeons to professional traders (http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Skinner_box http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Skinner_box).
- btian 14y ago
  I already own 10 shares of AAPL way before it went up to 500/700. Not selling anyway. Just saying... I'm not a trader in any way or form.
- _croz 14y ago
  > The way both of you are talking about trading this stock indicates that you both aren't qualified to trade. But then again - there aren't any tests to pass before one can trade - so trade away. But remember - you both look like dancing pigeons to professional traders Professional traders like this cat? http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/14/169326326/housecat-beats-investors-in-stock-market-challenge http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2013/01/14/169326326/housecat...
- encoderer 14y ago
  Oh, come on. It's not hard to make money in the market. It's not hard to see real, after-tax, inflation adjusted gains. Carefully picking companies in a buy-and-hold strategy is a reliable place to park your money for 3-8% growth. These guys aren't pretending to be day-traders. Looking at fund performance, as I'm sure you know, very very few managed funds beat the market with any consistency. There's too much hand-wavy "the big banks and funds play the little guy as a pawn" paranoia. Yes, you can make yourself a pawn by trying to play Gordon Gecko with your E-Trade account. But cost-averaging into a stock that you chose and believe in is both effective and open to everybody. And who knows. There are well told stories of amateur investors making literally billions of dollars finding holes in option contracts that the hedge funds and IBanks missed.
  - ajaymehta 14y ago
    Thank you.
  - thingylab 14y ago
    Care to share one of these "well told stories of amateur investors making literally billions of dollars finding holes in option contracts that the hedge funds and IBanks missed" ?
    - encoderer 14y ago
      http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827 http://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0...
      - confluence 14y ago
        None of them were amateurs.
        encoderer 14y ago
        BS. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall_Capital http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornwall_Capital They started with $100k pooled together from 3 guys' life savings. How much did they make? Exactly. The wikipedia article, short as it is, covers through 2010 when that $100k grew to "100 to 300 Million." Read the latest write-up of them in FT. It's a billion dollar venture now.

corresation 14y ago

If you actually believe that it's "artificial", then sure. There are hundreds of billions of dollars looking for situations like this, if the money managers actually believed the absurd conspiracy theories. Many HN visitors seems foolishly naive in the belief that a couple of players make the market (clearly because they have a personal interest. Never before have I seen such an interest in the stock market, or this feeling of profound victimization because it doesn't always move in one direction), when there are tens of thousands of very large players in the market, all of which want to screw every other player to the greatest extent possible. If AAPL were underpriced, there would be enormous buy pressure to the point that it is no longer underpriced. (Sidenote: Among one of the loudest proponents of the conspiracy theory is John Gruber, who today proclaimed that $500 proved it. Only the article he linked actually said $550. It turns out that there are psychological pivot points that are often hit nearing close. The market is made by people, and people understand and gravitate to emotional numbers)

ChuckMcM 14y ago
Whenever someone pitches me some 'sure fire' deal that will get me 12 - 15% returns for sure, I ask the obvious question which is "Why did all the rich people who have hundreds of people on staff searching to find these deals pass you by so that you could pitch me?" Kind of fun to watch them try to wriggle through the pitch.
- ajaymehta 14y ago
  Clearly, you should be skeptical of anyone offering a "surefire deal" on anything. Skepticism is healthy and good. But suppose the founders of Airbnb came to you when they were raising angel money. I'm sure they were convinced at that time (maybe objectively irrationally) that investing in their company was a "surefire deal." They were passed on by Fred Wilson (the equivalent of your "rich person with hundreds of staff"), among countless others I'm sure. By this point, their returns are certainly far more than 12-15%.
  - ChuckMcM 14y ago
    And there risk is higher than 'surefire' :-) I've invested in, been part of, and advised startups so I understand those risks. And, for example when FB stock dropped to 17 I bought a chunk and put a limit order to sell it at $28 (I ended up getting it at 18 and my limit order was purchase + $10) But again, it was a lot riskier than "surefire". When people guarantee results without risk, that is when I say "oh really? and just how do you do that?" There are lots of ideas, but the tried and true one is 'Ponzi Scheme' :-)