RIM didn't have a specific "failed model" that led to a collapse in margin. They were a case of slow death, with warning signs beginning even in 2007 with mark

RIM didn't have a specific "failed model" that led to a collapse in margin. They were a case of slow death, with warning signs beginning even in 2007 with market share instability as the global market for smartphones exploded. Actually you could point to the failure of the Storm in 2008 as their inability to adapt to a touchscreen-centric device, though that didn't directly lead to a margin collapse - just part of an overall slow market share whithering. A lot of these failures were hidden due to RIM's internal explosive growth through 2010, keeping their eyes off how much more Apple and Samsung were growing. So for Apple, the two areas to watch out for will be: market and profit share losses (so far Android has not been growing at Apple's expense- that may change), and whether they fail with a major "me too" feature that another carrier brings to market and has big success with. The latter I havent seen any real sign of. The former, there's a question mark if Android can successfully kill margins in the mobile phone space through their market share to a point that hurts everyone (Samsung, Apple, etc) but mostly Apple. On the other hand, Android is buying its market share from being a fully Google-subsidized set of software with no licensing fees. Is that sustainable? As for lock-in, surely the success of iTunes and the integration of AirPlay across all devices has caused significant lock in? I mean, media options in the Android world pale in comparison, only Microsoft Xbox Live really has a comparable selection of movies and tv shows. Similarly, the App Store selection have been a huge advantage to Apple with strong equivalents being slow to appear on Play. So of course, to your last point, if Apple doesn't keep making compelling upgrades, their fortunes will decline. but that goes for EVERY manufacturer that wishes to make a profit. if the Samsung Galaxy S4 isn't compelling, wouldn't that benefit Nokia and HTC and Apple? Samsung's profit growth too is almost exclusively driven from Smartphones - their other product lines aren't as profitable. Ultimately I think Apple has many risks ahead but I don't think they're as fragile as you seem to believe.