5 ms·

The arguments I've heard may be difficult to pull off, but they do make sense. One cited a lot of deep in the money call options expire soon, and the folks that

by Firehed 14y ago

The arguments I've heard may be difficult to pull off, but they do make sense. One cited a lot of deep in the money call options expire soon, and the folks that wrote those options have a lot to lose if the stock is high when they expire in a few days. With today's sloppy reporting and Apple being an especially juicy target for rumor-mongering, trying to deflate AAPL in the time just before the payout both makes sense and is probably easier than you imagine. You say that people aren't looking at the market rationally, but look at the volatility in AAPL just this week. It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news. Everything out there has been asinine rumors. As for having their lunch eaten by those looking for value... I bought call options yesterday on the wacky price dip; they were up over 200% today. Granted I only bought one option on the bet that a lot of this activity has been based on attempts to drive down the stock price on rumor alone so it's not like I made a whole lot (about $180 in profit), but people with much more money to throw around than myself taking a similar bet made stupid amounts of money in the last 36 hours or so. I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. It's been true of the Mac for years, and is increasingly true of the cell phone market as Samsung eats into marketshare. Guess what? I care about profit, not marketshare, which is why I'm long AAPL.

corresation 14y ago
You say that people aren't looking at the market rationally, but look at the volatility in AAPL just this week. It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news The market is adversarial, which is why it is seeing the fluctuations that it does (doubly so because it is an equity that most have been incredibly bullish about until quite recently, so it's at a potential transition point). The market is entirely rational, though the positions and perspectives that define each persons idea of rational vary. I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. This is an odd note to add on the end. Aside from Samsung making egregious profits as well (on a "commodity, race-to-the-bottom" platform), the fact that Apple makes so much profit in the consumer electronics market -- a market where profit margins average low single digits -- is exactly what makes so many nervous about Apple's long term outlook. The iPad Mini, for instance, is all about trying to save an iPad sale that they might have lost, at the cost of significant profit. For the first time ever I am seeing sales on Apple devices, including the latest and greatest. All is not at all what it was a year ago.
cageface 14y ago
I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. It's been true of the Mac for years, and is increasingly true of the cell phone market as Samsung eats into marketshare. Guess what? I care about profit, not marketshare, which is why I'm long AAPL. That is no longer true. Samsung had a great 2012 and seems poised to have an even better with the S4 and the Note 2. Apple is still making a shitload of money but none of the market trends are in their favor right now. What's more, the rise of the "phablet" and the explosion of mobile form factors means iOS development is about to get a lot harder. Developers used to pixel-perfect layouts are going to have to shift to a completely different mindset and the tools Apple provides for handling dynamic layouts are far more difficult to use than those of the competition.
- rimantas 14y ago
  > That is no longer true. So show your numbers. > What's more, the rise of the "phablet" and the explosion of mobile > form factors means iOS development is about to get a lot harder. How exactly? Do you know something we don't? So far we have three resolutions to care about, iPhone, iPhone 5 and iPad. Next step for iPad will be retina iPad mini which changes nothing. How Samsung of Google releasing some weird form factor will make my life as an iOS developer harder? And btw, there is autolayout if you missed it.
  - cageface 14y ago
    Two seconds of Googling: http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/26/samsungs-q2-2012-earnings-record-profit/ http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/26/samsungs-q2-2012-earnings... Apple can't keep playing this doubling/halving game forever. They already strained things with the iPhone 5 form factor enough that I'm still seeing tons of apps that haven't been updated and if they want to compete with things like the Note 2 then they're really going to have to break the mold. All those beautiful IB designs are going to go out the window. And no, I didn't miss AutoLayout but it's got to be one of the worst Apple APIs in a long time. The textual shorthand is cryptic enough to impress a Perl programmer.
    - 14y ago
niggler 14y ago
Always a good time to recall jim cramer's great conversation on market manipulation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI
cageface 14y ago
It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news. The WSJ's story claiming Apple cut iPhone 5 component orders in half is definitely real news if it turns out to reflect a real drop in demand.
- Cookingboy 14y ago
  Except it's not REAL news. First of all it's not even news, since it's a rehash of similar reports that were first reported back in December, only this time it's display instead of other parts. Secondly there is absolutely no source or anything credible that states the reason of the cut. The cut is real (albeit old news), but reporting it as if iPhone 5's demand being weak was a matter of fact (it wasn't) is downright irresponsible. Also the initial report suggested the cut was from 65 million units, which means even at half of that it would have been a record non-holiday quarter, but that number was soon removed from the WSJ report because it may not have supported their fear-mongering. Something is fishy here.

by Firehed 14y ago

corresation 14y ago

You say that people aren't looking at the market rationally, but look at the volatility in AAPL just this week. It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news The market is adversarial, which is why it is seeing the fluctuations that it does (doubly so because it is an equity that most have been incredibly bullish about until quite recently, so it's at a potential transition point). The market is entirely rational, though the positions and perspectives that define each persons idea of rational vary. I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. This is an odd note to add on the end. Aside from Samsung making egregious profits as well (on a "commodity, race-to-the-bottom" platform), the fact that Apple makes so much profit in the consumer electronics market -- a market where profit margins average low single digits -- is exactly what makes so many nervous about Apple's long term outlook. The iPad Mini, for instance, is all about trying to save an iPad sale that they might have lost, at the cost of significant profit. For the first time ever I am seeing sales on Apple devices, including the latest and greatest. All is not at all what it was a year ago.

cageface 14y ago

I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. It's been true of the Mac for years, and is increasingly true of the cell phone market as Samsung eats into marketshare. Guess what? I care about profit, not marketshare, which is why I'm long AAPL. That is no longer true. Samsung had a great 2012 and seems poised to have an even better with the S4 and the Note 2. Apple is still making a shitload of money but none of the market trends are in their favor right now. What's more, the rise of the "phablet" and the explosion of mobile form factors means iOS development is about to get a lot harder. Developers used to pixel-perfect layouts are going to have to shift to a completely different mindset and the tools Apple provides for handling dynamic layouts are far more difficult to use than those of the competition.

rimantas 14y ago
> That is no longer true. So show your numbers. > What's more, the rise of the "phablet" and the explosion of mobile > form factors means iOS development is about to get a lot harder. How exactly? Do you know something we don't? So far we have three resolutions to care about, iPhone, iPhone 5 and iPad. Next step for iPad will be retina iPad mini which changes nothing. How Samsung of Google releasing some weird form factor will make my life as an iOS developer harder? And btw, there is autolayout if you missed it.
- cageface 14y ago
  Two seconds of Googling: http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/26/samsungs-q2-2012-earnings-record-profit/ http://www.engadget.com/2012/07/26/samsungs-q2-2012-earnings... Apple can't keep playing this doubling/halving game forever. They already strained things with the iPhone 5 form factor enough that I'm still seeing tons of apps that haven't been updated and if they want to compete with things like the Note 2 then they're really going to have to break the mold. All those beautiful IB designs are going to go out the window. And no, I didn't miss AutoLayout but it's got to be one of the worst Apple APIs in a long time. The textual shorthand is cryptic enough to impress a Perl programmer.
  - 14y ago

niggler 14y ago

Always a good time to recall jim cramer's great conversation on market manipulation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gMShFx5rThI

cageface 14y ago

It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news. The WSJ's story claiming Apple cut iPhone 5 component orders in half is definitely real news if it turns out to reflect a real drop in demand.

Cookingboy 14y ago
Except it's not REAL news. First of all it's not even news, since it's a rehash of similar reports that were first reported back in December, only this time it's display instead of other parts. Secondly there is absolutely no source or anything credible that states the reason of the cut. The cut is real (albeit old news), but reporting it as if iPhone 5's demand being weak was a matter of fact (it wasn't) is downright irresponsible. Also the initial report suggested the cut was from 65 million units, which means even at half of that it would have been a record non-holiday quarter, but that number was soon removed from the WSJ report because it may not have supported their fear-mongering. Something is fishy here.