6 ms·

tldr: "Disclosure: I am long AAPL."

by Steko 14y ago

Bud 14y ago
Everyone with a mind is long AAPL right now. It's been bid down 20% lately for no apparent reason, iPhone sales were great and that's not figured in yet, Mac sales are strong and about to get stronger and that's not fully figured in yet, there are a lot of money managers with big $ riding on AAPL staying low til its earnings report, and if the P/E gets any smaller it'll be countable on one hand. AAPL will close up at least 20% higher on March 15 than last night's close.
- Tarrosion 14y ago
  If this were an obvious fact, wouldn't the market reflect that?
  - halostatue 14y ago
    If the market were perfectly efficient—and we know it isn't—maybe. Wall Street is (IMO) a trailing rather than a leading indicator and is more indicative of a herd mentality than innovative thinking. But what do I know? I only have a few thousand dollars in mutual funds through an RRSP and don't do financial software development.
  - snowwrestler 14y ago
    The market is eventually accurate when it comes to pricing, but the timing of when corrections happen can benefit some people more than others. So even if most people think the price is low right now, it still might be in their best interest to hold off on buying for a little while.
- Steko 14y ago
  Spoilers: factually I agree with much of what he says and you say. But there are always going to be naysayers. I expect Tim Cook to do well. He may do better than Jobs. He may also get hit by a bus tomorrow. He may do a competent job but ultimately be judged not the visionary jobs is as most expect. And he may be just plain bad. In that last case the naysayers will say they told us so. So I'm making my way through his article wondering what the point is... is it "Tim Cook is teh REAL DEALZ" or "give Tim Cook more time" or, wait here it is: "stop tanking my portfolio fuckers"
- T-A 14y ago
  http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241051730364998.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732423510457824...
  - legutierr 14y ago
    Some have said that this article was planted to manipulate the stock in advance of earnings.
    - Kylekramer 14y ago
      Everyone I have seen say that has a vested interest in Apple doing well. I doubt WSJ would sacrifice all credibility to mess with a stock for a bit.
      - parasubvert 14y ago
        "Blue horseshoe loves Anacott steel" The WSJ has never had credibility in this regard.
- corresation 14y ago
  I'm sorry, but the whole "it's all a conspiracy to keep Apple down" line is ridiculous: The market is highly adversarial, and if anyone were "keeping it down" artificially, they would have their lunch eaten by those looking for value. As one of the most held equities, AAPL isn't an easy asset to game. Apple has enormous, historic profit levels, and are sitting at an incredible altitude. If you really can't see the risk factors there -- why people might be skeptical -- especially given some broad shifts in the market (where competitors have largely kept up and are forcing Apple to iterate much more quickly, and to start to introduce products that compete against themselves, both of which threaten Apple's unprecedented profit margins), you aren't looking at the market rationally. Assuming that anything is a sure thing is just ridiculous.
  - Firehed 14y ago
    The arguments I've heard may be difficult to pull off, but they do make sense. One cited a lot of deep in the money call options expire soon, and the folks that wrote those options have a lot to lose if the stock is high when they expire in a few days. With today's sloppy reporting and Apple being an especially juicy target for rumor-mongering, trying to deflate AAPL in the time just before the payout both makes sense and is probably easier than you imagine. You say that people aren't looking at the market rationally, but look at the volatility in AAPL just this week. It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news. Everything out there has been asinine rumors. As for having their lunch eaten by those looking for value... I bought call options yesterday on the wacky price dip; they were up over 200% today. Granted I only bought one option on the bet that a lot of this activity has been based on attempts to drive down the stock price on rumor alone so it's not like I made a whole lot (about $180 in profit), but people with much more money to throw around than myself taking a similar bet made stupid amounts of money in the last 36 hours or so. I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. It's been true of the Mac for years, and is increasingly true of the cell phone market as Samsung eats into marketshare. Guess what? I care about profit, not marketshare, which is why I'm long AAPL.
    - 14y ago
- hazov 14y ago
  I'm pretty sure MS sells more Windows now than in the 90s, and yet MS is not the almost trillion dollars behemot it once was, there's the prediction of how things will develop in the future that's also an important decision in capital allocation. With ARM at the CES speaking of $100 phones it might be a good time for people to ponder if the smartphone mojo is gone and if the big bucks will come from volume of sales in the future. There's a growth plateau for every company and I believe the market believes by now that Apple is approaching it. EDIT: There's of course the iPad but I would prefer a few more years to see how things develop for Apple in this front.

tldr: "Disclosure: I am long AAPL."

by Steko 14y ago

tldr: "Disclosure: I am long AAPL."

Bud 14y ago

Everyone with a mind is long AAPL right now. It's been bid down 20% lately for no apparent reason, iPhone sales were great and that's not figured in yet, Mac sales are strong and about to get stronger and that's not fully figured in yet, there are a lot of money managers with big $ riding on AAPL staying low til its earnings report, and if the P/E gets any smaller it'll be countable on one hand. AAPL will close up at least 20% higher on March 15 than last night's close.

Tarrosion 14y ago
If this were an obvious fact, wouldn't the market reflect that?
- halostatue 14y ago
  If the market were perfectly efficient—and we know it isn't—maybe. Wall Street is (IMO) a trailing rather than a leading indicator and is more indicative of a herd mentality than innovative thinking. But what do I know? I only have a few thousand dollars in mutual funds through an RRSP and don't do financial software development.
- snowwrestler 14y ago
  The market is eventually accurate when it comes to pricing, but the timing of when corrections happen can benefit some people more than others. So even if most people think the price is low right now, it still might be in their best interest to hold off on buying for a little while.
Steko 14y ago
Spoilers: factually I agree with much of what he says and you say. But there are always going to be naysayers. I expect Tim Cook to do well. He may do better than Jobs. He may also get hit by a bus tomorrow. He may do a competent job but ultimately be judged not the visionary jobs is as most expect. And he may be just plain bad. In that last case the naysayers will say they told us so. So I'm making my way through his article wondering what the point is... is it "Tim Cook is teh REAL DEALZ" or "give Tim Cook more time" or, wait here it is: "stop tanking my portfolio fuckers"
T-A 14y ago
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241051730364998.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732423510457824...
- legutierr 14y ago
  Some have said that this article was planted to manipulate the stock in advance of earnings.
  - Kylekramer 14y ago
    Everyone I have seen say that has a vested interest in Apple doing well. I doubt WSJ would sacrifice all credibility to mess with a stock for a bit.
    - parasubvert 14y ago
      "Blue horseshoe loves Anacott steel" The WSJ has never had credibility in this regard.
corresation 14y ago
I'm sorry, but the whole "it's all a conspiracy to keep Apple down" line is ridiculous: The market is highly adversarial, and if anyone were "keeping it down" artificially, they would have their lunch eaten by those looking for value. As one of the most held equities, AAPL isn't an easy asset to game. Apple has enormous, historic profit levels, and are sitting at an incredible altitude. If you really can't see the risk factors there -- why people might be skeptical -- especially given some broad shifts in the market (where competitors have largely kept up and are forcing Apple to iterate much more quickly, and to start to introduce products that compete against themselves, both of which threaten Apple's unprecedented profit margins), you aren't looking at the market rationally. Assuming that anything is a sure thing is just ridiculous.
- Firehed 14y ago
  The arguments I've heard may be difficult to pull off, but they do make sense. One cited a lot of deep in the money call options expire soon, and the folks that wrote those options have a lot to lose if the stock is high when they expire in a few days. With today's sloppy reporting and Apple being an especially juicy target for rumor-mongering, trying to deflate AAPL in the time just before the payout both makes sense and is probably easier than you imagine. You say that people aren't looking at the market rationally, but look at the volatility in AAPL just this week. It's decidedly not normal for a stock with a price that high to see 4% fluctuations day-to-day unless there's real news. Everything out there has been asinine rumors. As for having their lunch eaten by those looking for value... I bought call options yesterday on the wacky price dip; they were up over 200% today. Granted I only bought one option on the bet that a lot of this activity has been based on attempts to drive down the stock price on rumor alone so it's not like I made a whole lot (about $180 in profit), but people with much more money to throw around than myself taking a similar bet made stupid amounts of money in the last 36 hours or so. I'll also point out here is that Apple has all of the profits in the industry, even if it doesn't have the marketshare. It's been true of the Mac for years, and is increasingly true of the cell phone market as Samsung eats into marketshare. Guess what? I care about profit, not marketshare, which is why I'm long AAPL.
  - 14y ago
hazov 14y ago
I'm pretty sure MS sells more Windows now than in the 90s, and yet MS is not the almost trillion dollars behemot it once was, there's the prediction of how things will develop in the future that's also an important decision in capital allocation. With ARM at the CES speaking of $100 phones it might be a good time for people to ponder if the smartphone mojo is gone and if the big bucks will come from volume of sales in the future. There's a growth plateau for every company and I believe the market believes by now that Apple is approaching it. EDIT: There's of course the iPad but I would prefer a few more years to see how things develop for Apple in this front.