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The Market Wants Apple to Unveil a Time Machine
- sgdesign 14y agoMaybe I'm over-simplifying things, but it seems to me that it's obvious that Apple is doing very well, and there's no money in stating the obvious. So "experts" are simply embracing the whole "Apple is doing bad" meme out of contrarianism, just to have something to say.
- bobbles 14y agoAll I know is.. if the Apple TV had an app store I'd have one connected to every TV in my house and my families houses (Plex!)
- MatthewPhillips 14y agoIf they wanted an App Store it would already have one. They don't want iTunes competitors on the Apple TV.
- bobbles 14y agoYou know what, you're right. AND I just realised that now Plex is able to AirPlay from an iOS device to an Apple TV. I think my problem is actually already solved...
- douglasisshiny 14y agoI really don't care about Apple, Jobs or Cook, but this is a horrible point (regarding Jobs track as CEO): "Volatile stock: In 2008, under Jobs, the stock price dropped by more than 50%." Uhh... I wonder if that had anything to do with the financial crisis....
- Steko 14y ago"this is a horrible point " I think his point was that they are all horrible points. He's using the ones for Jobs as a proof by absurdity that the ones for Cook should be ignored.
- Gigablah 14y ago> I think it's more a case of their being dissatisfied with their own lives and expecting that Apple's next product will fix everything. I stopped reading at this point. Does the author even realize how immature that sounds?
- doktrin 14y agoYou didn't miss much : > The critics that are screaming right now are intellectually lazy. They're throwing temper tantrums instead of looking at the big picture. Like two-year-olds, they don't really know what they want. And they're not happy when they get it, anyway.
- parasubvert 14y agoIf you've been following AAPL commentary on CNBC or various trading blogs, the quote resonates. It has been a crazy week.
- Steko 14y agotldr: "Disclosure: I am long AAPL."
- Bud 14y agoEveryone with a mind is long AAPL right now. It's been bid down 20% lately for no apparent reason, iPhone sales were great and that's not figured in yet, Mac sales are strong and about to get stronger and that's not fully figured in yet, there are a lot of money managers with big $ riding on AAPL staying low til its earnings report, and if the P/E gets any smaller it'll be countable on one hand. AAPL will close up at least 20% higher on March 15 than last night's close.
- Tarrosion 14y agoIf this were an obvious fact, wouldn't the market reflect that?
- halostatue 14y agoIf the market were perfectly efficient—and we know it isn't—maybe. Wall Street is (IMO) a trailing rather than a leading indicator and is more indicative of a herd mentality than innovative thinking. But what do I know? I only have a few thousand dollars in mutual funds through an RRSP and don't do financial software development.
- snowwrestler 14y agoThe market is eventually accurate when it comes to pricing, but the timing of when corrections happen can benefit some people more than others. So even if most people think the price is low right now, it still might be in their best interest to hold off on buying for a little while.
- Steko 14y agoSpoilers: factually I agree with much of what he says and you say. But there are always going to be naysayers. I expect Tim Cook to do well. He may do better than Jobs. He may also get hit by a bus tomorrow. He may do a competent job but ultimately be judged not the visionary jobs is as most expect. And he may be just plain bad. In that last case the naysayers will say they told us so. So I'm making my way through his article wondering what the point is... is it "Tim Cook is teh REAL DEALZ" or "give Tim Cook more time" or, wait here it is: "stop tanking my portfolio fuckers"
- akadien 14y agohttp://www.apple.com/findouthow/mac/#timemachinebasics http://www.apple.com/findouthow/mac/#timemachinebasics
- cma 14y agoIs this for backdating options?
- Cookingboy 14y agoI see what you did there :)
- cdalonzo 14y agoTime Machine, Time Capsule... Same thing http://www.apple.com/timecapsule/ http://www.apple.com/timecapsule/
- Yaa101 14y agoNah, they had their party, we just want them to go away :-)
- venus 14y agoI've just been re-reading How to get rich by Felix Dennis and this quote springs to mind: > But a public company exists only to boost its share price, and its share price is determined, incredibly enough, by 'analysts' - spotty-faced youths who live on another planet where growth-at-any-price is the only deity one is encouraged to worship. Medium- or long-term strategies were for wimps and amateurs, in their estimation, This quarter's results, this quarter's growth, were the only things that mattered to them. It almost seemed, at times, as if profit was a dirty word. If we were making 'profits', asked the 'analysts', weren't we in danger of 'wasting' money that could have been invested to produce more 'growth'? I thought it ridiculous when AAPL rose above $500, presumably because a mobile phone company is now the most important thing on earth; I find it equally ridiculous it's back under it now, for unknown and unknowable and probably nonsensical reasons. The madness of crowds...
- Camillo 14y agoThe funny thing is that if you did look at Apple's profits, and the profits and stock prices of other companies, Apple should cost way more than $500.
- Gustomaximus 14y agoYou don't value based on a companies profits. You value a company based on your belief of their future profits.
- anakha 14y agoAccording to the author, Apple invented mobile computing with the iPad. Wonder what label he gives to people using laptops on the road etc.?
- orionblastar 14y agoThe article claims Apple reinvented the telephone, ignoring the 1994 IBM Simon smartphone and every smartphone since before the iPhone came out. BlackBerry, PalmOS/WebOS, Windows CE, Linux, Symbios, etc. None of them exist apparently and Apple invented the smartphone, and everyone else ripped them off.
- rimantas 14y agoSo article claims Apple reinvented the telephone, but you treat that as a claim that Apple invented telephone. Compare the mobile world prior to iPhone and iPad and after and say that these devices changed nothing with a straigth face.
- sideproject 14y agoOf course no one knows what would happen, but personally, I'd LOVE to see how STUBBORN Tim Cook is. I wish he stubbornly sticks to his course - whatever that maybe - and get all of his sub-ordinates to stubbornly stick to their courses and despite all the noise external parties are making about whether they are doing well or not, come out with another kick-ass products. It's always satisfying to silence your critics by being stubborn and and then proven right.
- beedogs 14y ago> We don't know what Apple has in store for us. Over the past 10 years, it reinvented the telephone, music players, the way we consume music, and mobile computing itself — actually, with the iPad, Apple invented mobile computing. I'm sorry, but that is an absurd sentence. And that's where I stopped reading.
- benlower 14y agoWhich means you missed the disclosure buried at the bottom: the author owns AAPL. Why not lead with that?
- 6ren 14y agoApple has a few years of profit from its present product categories. There's no doubt they can crank out the same rate of technical improvements and great design. But can they create new product categories? Most companies can't - they make one, and ride it til it dies. Apple and Steve Jobs were extraordinary in creating several. One other company that did this was Sony - until its founder retired. It's not a knock against Tim Cook, it's just that hardly anyone in the world has ever done this more than once (or even once!). And he's not a wild/crazy guy like Steve Jobs, but the opposite, someone who can make operations really work. That said: Apple is perfectly positioned for a Google Glass product. I believe this is the next form-factor for computers after phones (because you can't make phones much smaller, and still read the screen, get your fingers on it). It also needs eyetracking for input. But Google Glass looks terrible - an Apple version would indeed look like a fashion accessory (e.g. Ray-Bans). Plus, Apple has manufacturing/technology/design experience in smaller form-factors (e.g. shuffle/nano). tl;dr If Apple can make smartphones fashionable, sunglasses should be easy.
- hcarvalhoalves 14y agoGlass is a product that could only have happend at Google: it's geeky, and they have money to toss on unproven devices. Apple would never release anything so experimental.
- btown 14y agoWhich is why they're not releasing such a product until the market has its way with Glass... every mistake Glass makes, every bug and failure, is something Apple can avoid doing when and if it finally releases their iEye ;)
- hcarvalhoalves 14y agoYou're assuming glass, as a product, makes sense in the first place, and that others will follow. Nobody knows yet, what Google has is a prototype, not a product. Remember the Segway? It was the future too.
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- krichman 14y agoI'd like them to travel back to OS X 10.6 and branch an alternate history from there. I think they'll do well for the next few years because they are directing effort towards making computers and devices for people that don't know how to use computers. Apple's devices are attractive and are more intuitive/simple to use for many people (for example, most of my family prefers OS X to Windows). Unfortunately I believe their implementation comes at the expense of user experience for power users. It seems wise to go long on AAPL for now, but I shan't be purchasing more of their devices personally.
- snowwrestler 14y agoI bought more AAPL when the price dropped below $500. Consider: - The trailing P/E was 11. 11! For a disruptive technology company! And that is well trailing since they are just about to announce new earnings. - Apple has tremendous cash reserves. - The stock pays a dividend. To me the only explanation for the stock drop that makes sense is technical--i.e. it is driven by an alignment in high-volume market-timing maneuvers rather than business fundamentals.
- mmanfrin 14y agoThe irony in using the fact that Steve Jobs had a $247mil loss as a sign for hope, then later down stating that Amazon had the exact same $247mil loss -- as a sign that it has nothing on AAPL.
- mazumdar 14y agoI could resonate well with the Title of the article because I share the same sentiment - that with every apple announcement, people expect something that will blow their minds off. The article went on to do a comparison of revolutionary product-release timelines, failures, and stock volatility under Jobs and Cook followed by the market not being happy with Apple and so on, but I was hoping it would highlight the core reason behind the disruption of the iphone/ipad and why Apple is unlikely to meet the market's expectations. Now, this is only an opinion, but I strongly feel that the core behind the disruptions were the technologies (or combination thereof) we know as capacitative touch-screen, multi-touch, accelerometer, and gyroscope (i'm sure i missed something). In fact, I should further point out that it is not merely the use of such technologies but rather the perfection of these technologies that allowed Apple to use them and create a user experience that would amaze the world, followed by developers using the perfected technologies to create even more delightful experiences. Now, going back to the Title of the article that caught my eye in the fist place, while it is realistic for people to expect enhancements of hardware, new design, new software, etc. from Apple, it is unrealistic to expect Apple to release revolutionary products every year, simply because the core technologies don't follow a 1-year introduction cycle. This is something the market just doesn't understand. I do believe that there are new core technologies in Apple's pipeline which are waiting to mature into perfection, but for now, we have to be content with Apple maximizing user experience with what they have.