You need more of the probability distribution for the plays to make that decision. Most trick plays involve a handoff deep in the backfield which can result in

You need more of the probability distribution for the plays to make that decision. Most trick plays involve a handoff deep in the backfield which can result in large losses, which can kill drives. One reason why football teams run the ball even though the yards per play is lower than passing is that the lower variability of yardage gain helps to sustain drives resulting in points. On 4th down you need to figure in the opportunity cost of the punt (~35 net yards). There was a paper ~12 years ago that covered this in detail using a dynamic programming approach to calculate the value of a first down at each yard line for a team, to calculate the value of say punting. It concluded NFL teams punt too much. Nowadays you see a lot more 4th down attempts than 10 years ago. I duplicated this approach for Division 3 college games and came up with an even more aggressive result. But good read, it gave me an idea for some analysis myself.