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NFL Teams Should Use More Trick Plays

13 points by gusgordon 14y ago

Pinatubo 14y ago
If you call more trick plays, you're less likely to trick people with them ...
- gusgordon 14y ago
  Using, say, four more trick plays per season could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs, and probably would not change the way defenses behave much. There’s a sweet spot here of using trick plays and being unpredictable that not many coaches play with. It’s also difficult for a defense to change their play style in order to counter trick plays without sacrificing defensive efficiency on standard plays. There are obviously lots of points to be made here.
smky80 14y ago
You need more of the probability distribution for the plays to make that decision. Most trick plays involve a handoff deep in the backfield which can result in large losses, which can kill drives. One reason why football teams run the ball even though the yards per play is lower than passing is that the lower variability of yardage gain helps to sustain drives resulting in points. On 4th down you need to figure in the opportunity cost of the punt (~35 net yards). There was a paper ~12 years ago that covered this in detail using a dynamic programming approach to calculate the value of a first down at each yard line for a team, to calculate the value of say punting. It concluded NFL teams punt too much. Nowadays you see a lot more 4th down attempts than 10 years ago. I duplicated this approach for Division 3 college games and came up with an even more aggressive result. But good read, it gave me an idea for some analysis myself.
ScottWhigham 14y ago
This is a fun post. I love stuff like this. I don't think, however, that it's a particularly good example of "good analysis" - this analysis is clearly done either by (a) someone who isn't fully aware of all of the various strategies and nuances of NFL football, or (b) someone who is aware of such things but was in a rush to get this post written. There's just too much missing information to draw any conclusions such as those drawn by OP. A trick's play's success rate is based on many factors. Saying that the down number is the primary factor is like rating a woman's attractiveness by how smart she is. Such a rating would, of course, give you false positives and negatives because it represents only part of the whole. A trick play's success rate depends on down number, position on the field, the clock, defensive tendencies, score, weather, field conditions, player injuries, and more. For example, a flea flicker isn't going to be attempted as often in really bad weather, or when you are up by four touchdowns, or when the main player who is the ultimate receiver of the ball (the "flea", perhaps?) is out of the game due to injury. So I like this sort of analysis but it's completely useless due to its incompleteness. But I still am glad OP shared because I like seeing all the thoughts, functions, and so forth.
cafard 14y ago
The 1977 Broncos finished the regular season with one loss to the Dallas Cowboys. It seemed a bit fragile to me, though, given the three or four games won by trick plays. They me the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and were soundly beaten...

13 points by gusgordon 14y ago

Pinatubo 14y ago

If you call more trick plays, you're less likely to trick people with them ...

gusgordon 14y ago
Using, say, four more trick plays per season could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs, and probably would not change the way defenses behave much. There’s a sweet spot here of using trick plays and being unpredictable that not many coaches play with. It’s also difficult for a defense to change their play style in order to counter trick plays without sacrificing defensive efficiency on standard plays. There are obviously lots of points to be made here.

smky80 14y ago

You need more of the probability distribution for the plays to make that decision. Most trick plays involve a handoff deep in the backfield which can result in large losses, which can kill drives. One reason why football teams run the ball even though the yards per play is lower than passing is that the lower variability of yardage gain helps to sustain drives resulting in points. On 4th down you need to figure in the opportunity cost of the punt (~35 net yards). There was a paper ~12 years ago that covered this in detail using a dynamic programming approach to calculate the value of a first down at each yard line for a team, to calculate the value of say punting. It concluded NFL teams punt too much. Nowadays you see a lot more 4th down attempts than 10 years ago. I duplicated this approach for Division 3 college games and came up with an even more aggressive result. But good read, it gave me an idea for some analysis myself.

ScottWhigham 14y ago

This is a fun post. I love stuff like this. I don't think, however, that it's a particularly good example of "good analysis" - this analysis is clearly done either by (a) someone who isn't fully aware of all of the various strategies and nuances of NFL football, or (b) someone who is aware of such things but was in a rush to get this post written. There's just too much missing information to draw any conclusions such as those drawn by OP. A trick's play's success rate is based on many factors. Saying that the down number is the primary factor is like rating a woman's attractiveness by how smart she is. Such a rating would, of course, give you false positives and negatives because it represents only part of the whole. A trick play's success rate depends on down number, position on the field, the clock, defensive tendencies, score, weather, field conditions, player injuries, and more. For example, a flea flicker isn't going to be attempted as often in really bad weather, or when you are up by four touchdowns, or when the main player who is the ultimate receiver of the ball (the "flea", perhaps?) is out of the game due to injury. So I like this sort of analysis but it's completely useless due to its incompleteness. But I still am glad OP shared because I like seeing all the thoughts, functions, and so forth.

cafard 14y ago

The 1977 Broncos finished the regular season with one loss to the Dallas Cowboys. It seemed a bit fragile to me, though, given the three or four games won by trick plays. They me the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, and were soundly beaten...