I just started reading "the signal and the noise" [0], and he talks about the difference between "risk" and "uncertainty": "Risk" is a known factor, something

I just started reading "the signal and the noise" [0], and he talks about the difference between "risk" and "uncertainty": "Risk" is a known factor, something you can calculate with. Something might be risky (50% chance of failure) but at least you can calculate and reason about it. "Uncertainty" is "worse" because you can't easily reason about it. We often assign numbers to uncertain events anyway, but they might be off by several orders of magnitude. He goes on to say something like: Risk fuels capitalism and the marked, uncertainty grinds it to a halt [0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#Book http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#Book Edit: I forgot to tie this in to what we where talking about :) As I see it, relying on someone else (with out any guarantees) is not just risky but uncertain. You can't really know how likely it is that they will change down the road. Doesn't mean it can't work out though..