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I wouldn't bet on Facebook/Twitter/Social - its honestly a very hard business to be in for a megacorp. Slippery customers, monetization destroys product qualit
by moocow01 14y ago
I wouldn't bet on Facebook/Twitter/Social - its honestly a very hard business to be in for a megacorp. Slippery customers, monetization destroys product quality - there are lots of statements people like to make such as "but what if FB just does X" (charges a dollar, muscles into search, etc) - those what ifs in actuality are very difficult pivots. Additionally its telling that the number 2 social network (in terms of popularity) cant figure out how to consistently make money. Social networking in general is a graveyard of small rockstar companies that have generated more hype than dollars.
Apple is a behemoth - they may be at the top of their game but they have a looong looong way to fall if they start to. They may be the most valuable just by how large they are today. I think generally they will smartly stay at what they are good at (consumer devices/software).
Amazon is my vote - they are amazing at scale in almost every way. Im not too keen on seeing this happen but I think they are going to slowly eat almost all of retail. On top of it, it seems as if they are successfully trying to replicate their model for retail across other segments (AWS/digital/etc) - Amazon seems to want to be a provider for everything and the scary part is that they are doing it quite well and quickly.
Google I think has some good things ahead but in a lot of ways I think they have stagnated from a business perspective. Its a bit hard to see this perspective in that they deservedly uphold an amazing reputation amongst the tech community. They have great ideas but they are still 100% in the ad business after all these years and many years of trying diversification. They have great side projects that live great lives today but from a business perspective they are always still side projects. I think Google will see some moderate growth but am not too bullish on their version of glass or auto-cars ever being true business drivers for them.
Dropbox, Square - great services - will remain blips on the radar of history compared to the others.