3 ms·
Let's be clear, the probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth in the next 100 years is extremely small: 7.4e-06 [1]. And even then it wouldn't be an extin
by brianchu 14y ago
Let's be clear, the probability of Apophis colliding with the Earth in the next 100 years is extremely small: 7.4e-06 [1]. And even then it wouldn't be an extinction event. To me this is a non-issue - the odds of a massive pandemic or nuclear war with greater destructive potential in the next 100 years are arguably higher.
There is some level of uncertainty with the estimates because the asteroid's orbit will change in 2029. But even if the estimates are off by a couple orders of magnitude in the worst case, we are still looking at a very small probability.
[1] http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html