3 ms·

I would be interested to see more statistics and trends of people over time. Many of the statistics I see divide people into classes by income, but ignore the f

I would be interested to see more statistics and trends of people over time. Many of the statistics I see divide people into classes by income, but ignore the fact that the people within those classes change. For instance, let's say that people in the next generation decide to go to college for 10 more years, leaving at 32 rather than 22. Then, when they get out, they make 50% more income than the previous generation. Overall, they might be better off throughout their life; but the statistics will make it look like there is a huge lower class (who are in fact just young and haven't reaped the benefits of their education yet). The more our earning is concentrated to a small part of our lives, the more it will look like class divisions. And depending on how the accounting is done, the upper classes may consist largely of people with temporarily high incomes (from inheritance, selling a house, etc.). [None of the above is meant to imply that there is not a problem. Just that statistics can be deceptive, and can hide the real solutions from us.] EDIT: Specifically, I think it would be interesting to divide people into classes like: "X% of people will see an income over $80K sometime during their lives". That seems like a better indicator of opportunity to me.

scarmig 14y ago
You see that same issue when people complain that X% of the population doesn't pay income taxes: it's true, as far as it goes, but it ignores that people nowadays have extended periods of studenthood, sabbaticals, and partial retirement (among other things). The daughter of two professors working on a PhD in mathematics is not of a lower class than a high school educated waitress, despite making a similar amount. I dug up this paper, which seems like it might address it. Going to dig into it sometime after work: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/~manovski/papers/accounting_for_profiles.pdf http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/~manovski/papers/accounting_f...
- jeffdavis 14y ago
  Interesting, thank you (haven't read it yet, but the first page looks promising).
bhntr3 14y ago
It's an interesting argument that I've heard many times in different ways. I'm inclined to think there's some truth to it. But when you look at trends, income is stagnant, wages are stagnant AND measures of social mobility are low as well as studies that show a lack of evidence for second and third generation immigrants being significantly better off. That plus the (admittedly anecdotal) evidence that single earner lower middle class families who own their homes and cars are much rarer seems to indicate that the shrinking middle class is a reality (measured mostly by some vague "quality of life" metric.) So it's complicated. The most compelling argument I've heard is that necessities are getting more expensive relative to general inflation (gas, food, housing) On the other hand, what you get for your money is much more advanced now technologically. So it's not like we're strictly speaking worse off even if our relative purchasing power has decreased.
- jeffdavis 14y ago
  "It's an interesting argument that I've heard many times in different ways." I wasn't making an argument; merely asking for numbers and explaining why the existing numbers may be deceptive. "a lack of evidence for second and third generation immigrants being significantly better off." Do you have some numbers to back that up? I'd like to see them broken down by country of origin, if possible.
  - bhntr3 14y ago
    I guess I was inferring a counter argument to "the middle class is declining" which goes something like "the middle class is changing and not the same types of people now that it was then." Young people studying longer, settling down later, more immigration, etc. I went on a quest to find the numbers years ago and those were the conclusions I came back with. The numbers are messy. I wish I had them or remembered what I read to form those conclusions. I'm actually drawn to this question because I thought of trying to make a website that drew together the data with visualization and statistical analysis. If you find the data please being it back and share it. EDIT: Actually the Wikipedia article on social mobility in the US is a pretty good start. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_...

scarmig 14y ago

You see that same issue when people complain that X% of the population doesn't pay income taxes: it's true, as far as it goes, but it ignores that people nowadays have extended periods of studenthood, sabbaticals, and partial retirement (among other things). The daughter of two professors working on a PhD in mathematics is not of a lower class than a high school educated waitress, despite making a similar amount. I dug up this paper, which seems like it might address it. Going to dig into it sometime after work: http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/~manovski/papers/accounting_for_profiles.pdf http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/~manovski/papers/accounting_f...

jeffdavis 14y ago
Interesting, thank you (haven't read it yet, but the first page looks promising).

bhntr3 14y ago

It's an interesting argument that I've heard many times in different ways. I'm inclined to think there's some truth to it. But when you look at trends, income is stagnant, wages are stagnant AND measures of social mobility are low as well as studies that show a lack of evidence for second and third generation immigrants being significantly better off. That plus the (admittedly anecdotal) evidence that single earner lower middle class families who own their homes and cars are much rarer seems to indicate that the shrinking middle class is a reality (measured mostly by some vague "quality of life" metric.) So it's complicated. The most compelling argument I've heard is that necessities are getting more expensive relative to general inflation (gas, food, housing) On the other hand, what you get for your money is much more advanced now technologically. So it's not like we're strictly speaking worse off even if our relative purchasing power has decreased.

jeffdavis 14y ago
"It's an interesting argument that I've heard many times in different ways." I wasn't making an argument; merely asking for numbers and explaining why the existing numbers may be deceptive. "a lack of evidence for second and third generation immigrants being significantly better off." Do you have some numbers to back that up? I'd like to see them broken down by country of origin, if possible.
- bhntr3 14y ago
  I guess I was inferring a counter argument to "the middle class is declining" which goes something like "the middle class is changing and not the same types of people now that it was then." Young people studying longer, settling down later, more immigration, etc. I went on a quest to find the numbers years ago and those were the conclusions I came back with. The numbers are messy. I wish I had them or remembered what I read to form those conclusions. I'm actually drawn to this question because I thought of trying to make a website that drew together the data with visualization and statistical analysis. If you find the data please being it back and share it. EDIT: Actually the Wikipedia article on social mobility in the US is a pretty good start. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_United_States http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the_...