I bet the number of Sun Java certifications will decline in the future, but it's probably more a case of less interest in J2EE and the Sun way of doing stuff.

I bet the number of Sun Java certifications will decline in the future, but it's probably more a case of less interest in J2EE and the Sun way of doing stuff. So, with my indicator, we're all doomed. Using Dow's transportation notion, we might look at the number of new truck driver certifications as a leading indicator of the market. However, looking at the certification rate for Freightliner vehicles (a non-existent certification, but fun to think about) is more likely a measurement of the relative importance of that brand of truck than anything macroeconomic. And, rather than looking at certifications, why not look at number of truck miles driven, number of truck tires purchased, etc. Shouldn't Cringly be looking at Cisco's sales data for routers instead? I know nothing about their numbers today!