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It sounds great. But when fiscal stimulus plays such a large and persistent role, and you're clearly nearing the end of the road for more borrowing / more stim
by chernevik 14y ago
It sounds great. But when fiscal stimulus plays such a large and persistent role, and you're clearly nearing the end of the road for more borrowing / more stimulus, the expectation of stimulus withdrawal starts to play an ever larger role in forecast expectations. E.g. at some point businesses stop thinking about additional demand today and the demand shrinkage in the future. They start develering and stop taking chances. And the more the government counters with short-term stimulus, the more expectations anticipates the end of stimulus in the mid-term.
And, "constant growth" depends on a structurally sound economy. Well, if the economy has been shaped to meet demand from a necessarily contracting customer -- the government -- its structure gets distorted. Add in the distortions from crazy federal credit policy (Fannie / Freddie). Now we have an economy that must reallocate productive resources to meet real demand -- but no one has a clue where that demand actually will be because we're so distant from the environment supporting it.
tldr; 40 years of government stimulus, in various dimensions, has fundamentally detoriated the economy's ability to deliver "constant positive growth." We've gone past the point where we can outgrow the debt growth needed to fuel this government stimulus growth model.