Fair. I think the analogy goes this far: in gambling, there's "beginner's luck", which is actually selection bias in favor of people who have early luck. (Begin

Fair. I think the analogy goes this far: in gambling, there's "beginner's luck", which is actually selection bias in favor of people who have early luck. (Beginners with shitty luck stop playing and therefore don't "begin".) In software, there's the tyranny of past success: the tendency to fight the last war.