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Here is an idea: build a predictive model of an offensive coach that predicts the play he will call, given a game situation (and based on that, build a predicti

Here is an idea: build a predictive model of an offensive coach that predicts the play he will call, given a game situation (and based on that, build a predictiveness quotient for a coach).

fleaflicker 14y ago
It doesn't work like that in practice. Football is very dependent on matchups. Coaches will vary gameplans from week-to-week to exploit weaknesses they see on film.
- kaliblack 14y ago
  Agreed. Also, assuming you could create a successful predictive model the advantage would be short term. All coaches would hop on the bandwagon.
  - pseut 14y ago
    How optimistic of you.
- dude_abides 14y ago
  Matchup would be a part of the model. My experience with predictive modeling in various domains has taught me that people tend to underestimate how predictive they are (NFL offensive/defensive coaches are no exception).
  - lftl 14y ago
    I'm interested in doing some predictive modeling for a couple of project ideas I've been kicking around. Are there any specific resources you would recommend as good starter material?
- jpeterson 14y ago
  It could still be useful for finding tendencies, though.
  - zachgemignani 14y ago
    Visualization of rushing tendencies using this very data http://labs.juiceanalytics.com/spider/index.html http://labs.juiceanalytics.com/spider/index.html
zgohr 14y ago
If only a single play call had a single potential outcome, and that outcome was always met. Using these stats for predictions would seem extremely difficult beyond answering, "will it be a run or a pass?"
- gtCameron 14y ago
  If you were the defensive coordinator on the opposing team, knowing the answer to "run or pass" with a high degree of certainty would give you a pretty large advantage.
  - pitt1980 14y ago
    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/06/bill-walsh-on-randomness.html http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/06/bill-walsh-on-random... In his early Stanford days, Bill Walsh had already cracked the code on how un-random football coaches (and almost all people) are. From "Controlling the Ball with the Passing Game": "We know that if they don't blitz one down, they're going to blitz the next down. Automatically. When you get down in there, every other play. They'll seldom blitz twice in a row, but they'll blitz every other down. If we go a series where there haven't been blitzes on the first two downs, here comes the safety blitz on third down." Most NFL offenses tend to alternate rather than randomize. Walsh knew defenses were just as predictable decades ago.
sethist 14y ago
There are too many missing variables. The most obvious being who made the actual play call, the head coach, the offensive coordinator, or the quarterback.
nchuhoai 14y ago
Here is a start: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cy04oxaq83mxvoz/report.pdf https://www.dropbox.com/s/cy04oxaq83mxvoz/report.pdf

Here is an idea: build a predictive model of an offensive coach that predicts the play he will call, given a game situation (and based on that, build a predictiveness quotient for a coach).

fleaflicker 14y ago

It doesn't work like that in practice. Football is very dependent on matchups. Coaches will vary gameplans from week-to-week to exploit weaknesses they see on film.

kaliblack 14y ago
Agreed. Also, assuming you could create a successful predictive model the advantage would be short term. All coaches would hop on the bandwagon.
- pseut 14y ago
  How optimistic of you.
dude_abides 14y ago
Matchup would be a part of the model. My experience with predictive modeling in various domains has taught me that people tend to underestimate how predictive they are (NFL offensive/defensive coaches are no exception).
- lftl 14y ago
  I'm interested in doing some predictive modeling for a couple of project ideas I've been kicking around. Are there any specific resources you would recommend as good starter material?
jpeterson 14y ago
It could still be useful for finding tendencies, though.
- zachgemignani 14y ago
  Visualization of rushing tendencies using this very data http://labs.juiceanalytics.com/spider/index.html http://labs.juiceanalytics.com/spider/index.html

zgohr 14y ago

If only a single play call had a single potential outcome, and that outcome was always met. Using these stats for predictions would seem extremely difficult beyond answering, "will it be a run or a pass?"

gtCameron 14y ago
If you were the defensive coordinator on the opposing team, knowing the answer to "run or pass" with a high degree of certainty would give you a pretty large advantage.
- pitt1980 14y ago
  http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/06/bill-walsh-on-randomness.html http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/06/bill-walsh-on-random... In his early Stanford days, Bill Walsh had already cracked the code on how un-random football coaches (and almost all people) are. From "Controlling the Ball with the Passing Game": "We know that if they don't blitz one down, they're going to blitz the next down. Automatically. When you get down in there, every other play. They'll seldom blitz twice in a row, but they'll blitz every other down. If we go a series where there haven't been blitzes on the first two downs, here comes the safety blitz on third down." Most NFL offenses tend to alternate rather than randomize. Walsh knew defenses were just as predictable decades ago.

sethist 14y ago

There are too many missing variables. The most obvious being who made the actual play call, the head coach, the offensive coordinator, or the quarterback.

nchuhoai 14y ago

Here is a start: https://www.dropbox.com/s/cy04oxaq83mxvoz/report.pdf https://www.dropbox.com/s/cy04oxaq83mxvoz/report.pdf