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I really like his 4th Down analysis: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-

by tghw 14y ago

I really like his 4th Down analysis: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-... The tl;dr version can be found at: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/05/4th-down-briefs.html http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/05/4th-down-briefs.html The conclusion is that teams should go for it on 4th down much more often than they currently do. He also has a calculator where you can get the exact values: http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php http://wp.advancednflstats.com/4thdncalc1.php

yukoncornelius 14y ago
The Patriots have used this analysis: http://www.math.toronto.edu/mpugh/Teaching/Sci199_03/Football_game_theory.htm http://www.math.toronto.edu/mpugh/Teaching/Sci199_03/Footbal... I also believe Belichek/Adams have funded some football economics research.
binxbolling 14y ago
Could just be my imagination, but I felt like this season I saw many more teams go for it on 4th down (maybe some of this data can prove or disprove that?). Perhaps the impact of the above, or similar, analyses is finally being seen.