3 ms·
Neither the CPU nor the router were invented in the last 10 years Paul, and the retreat to hardware makes for a weak case since new FABs are generally financed
by trevelyan 18y ago
Neither the CPU nor the router were invented in the last 10 years Paul, and the retreat to hardware makes for a weak case since new FABs are generally financed by banks and corporate bonds rather than venture capital. Neither my router nor CPU were produced in the United States, although that is beside the point.
My point was that IPO and M&A activity are highly correlated with stock market performance. I can't run a regression analysis linking exit opportunities to international capital flows because there are no statistics on international investment in US stock markets, but it hardly seems radical to point out that the VC boom of recent years has been fueled significantly by the stock market boom. If strategic investment decisions were the primary driving force behind the success of the industry the industry should not be facing such a bad liquidity crisis right now.
And perhaps this is harsh, but I don't see a lot of competence in the investment decisions which have been made in my own industry so I find your argument unconvincing. A lot of startups are competing against other startups and most funded companies in my space are disasters. But they all love AdSense, which means that as these companies flame out my ad-spend is going down and life is getting much nicer. Your suggestion that public policy should involving giving significant sums of money no-strings-attached to groups that seem responsible for major capital misallocation and band-wagon investment behavior seems beyond unjust. It seems crazy.
- pg 18y agoI just started with hardware since I can safely assume you have to use that. But I'm guessing you also use Google, no?
- trevelyan 18y agoI'm not sure what the n = 1 Google argument is supposed to accomplish - is boo.com relevant too? These are single data points in an argument about aggregate investment quality and the only meaningful statistic is aggregate ROI now. I think it's interesting you're jumping back to the late 90s again, because if you had a stronger argument vis-a-vis the quality of VC investment over the last few years, I really don't think you'd need to go there. You could be absolutely right. There could be a lot of fantastic companies just sitting in VC portfolios making profits and waiting for the market to turn in order to maximize their exits. That is true. But it's also true that owning profitable companies does not generally incite the sort of liquidity crisis that seems prevalent in the industry right now. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying there's very little evidence that the people you're proposing get a massive windfall in the form of a $30 million turn at the roulette table know what they're doing. And some of what they're doing hurts people who are competent and profitable. So in my industry, I don't think the word incompetent is really that strong. They could be making money, they're not. YMMV.