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> The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track. I am not one who claims there is no evidence for climate ch

> The frequency and intensity of extreme weather incidents is on an upward (and exponential) track. I am not one who claims there is no evidence for climate change (I would point to this year's record arctic ice minimum, for instance) but I remain unconvinced that this is true. For example, there is absolutely no positive trend in US F3+ tornadoes[1], or in major US hurricane strikes per decade[2]. I know that's just the US, although the US does have the most tornadoes, but those are just two examples of things that seem like they're becoming more frequent/intense but actually aren't - not even linearly over the past century, much less exponentially. [1]http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/EF3-EF5.png http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/tornado/clim/E... [2]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

scoot 14y ago
I don't think picking one type of weather event from one geographic location over a relatively short time-frame is going to be representative (however I am by no means suggesting you intentionally picked data that favoured your argument). This more encompassing study shows a definite trend, although I accept my use of the word 'exponential' was ill-advised without concrete evidence to back it up: 'The data show that the number of such events is rising. Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, has compiled the world's most comprehensive database of natural disasters, reaching all the way back to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in A.D. 79. Researchers at the company, which obviously has a keen financial interest in trends that increase insurance risks, add 700 to 1,000 natural catastrophes to the database each year, explains Mark Bove, senior research meteorologist in Munich Re's catastrophe risk management office in Princeton, N.J. The data indicate a small increase in geologic events like earthquakes since 1980 because of better reporting. But the increase in the number of climate disasters is far larger. "Our figures indicate a trend towards an increase in extreme weather events that can only be fully explained by climate change," says Peter Höppe, head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center: "It's as if the weather machine had changed up a gear.'[1] [1] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=extreme-weather-caused-by-climate-change http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=extreme-wea...

scoot 14y ago

I don't think picking one type of weather event from one geographic location over a relatively short time-frame is going to be representative (however I am by no means suggesting you intentionally picked data that favoured your argument). This more encompassing study shows a definite trend, although I accept my use of the word 'exponential' was ill-advised without concrete evidence to back it up: 'The data show that the number of such events is rising. Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, has compiled the world's most comprehensive database of natural disasters, reaching all the way back to the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in A.D. 79. Researchers at the company, which obviously has a keen financial interest in trends that increase insurance risks, add 700 to 1,000 natural catastrophes to the database each year, explains Mark Bove, senior research meteorologist in Munich Re's catastrophe risk management office in Princeton, N.J. The data indicate a small increase in geologic events like earthquakes since 1980 because of better reporting. But the increase in the number of climate disasters is far larger. "Our figures indicate a trend towards an increase in extreme weather events that can only be fully explained by climate change," says Peter Höppe, head of Munich Re's Geo Risks Research/Corporate Climate Center: "It's as if the weather machine had changed up a gear.'[1] [1] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=extreme-weather-caused-by-climate-change http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=extreme-wea...