I'm an optimist by the standards of people who have ever written "p(doom)", I'd put p(doom before 2030) at 2-3% or so. On that scale, mostly political risk, e.

I'm an optimist by the standards of people who have ever written "p(doom)", I'd put p(doom before 2030) at 2-3% or so. On that scale, mostly political risk, e.g. this kind of thing going hot: https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/fake-ai-intelligence-used-us-221612874.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/fake-ai-intelligence-... My p(doom in my natural lifetime) risk is about 10%, which is mostly the chances we keep ignoring all the warnings as they get more capable and thus their errors more damaging.