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> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known inform

> By the finale, Kalshi’s “Survivor” market had reached a volume of $32.7 million I don't get this. How are people "betting" on something that is "known information" for other people? What's the point? I get betting on stuff that no one can know, but who's taking "the other side" on these bets? Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer?

jihadjihad 12d ago
> Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer? https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833 https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833
echelon 12d ago
That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors. Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.
- sd9 12d ago
  Yes but in this case, tens or hundreds of people know the outcome months in advance. I'm very surprised that the market doesn't immediately converge to 100% for one candidate. The winner is not really a forecastable 'random event' in that by the time the show is airing, it's not being pulled from a distribution.
  - yorwba 12d ago
    In theory, an insider willing to take any positive-expectation bet would drive the market price arbitrary close to the correct answer, but in practice they might be under NDA and want to avoid getting caught, or they limit their bet amount for other reasons, so the market ends up dominated by gamblers placing uninformed bets.
    - sd9 12d ago
      Indeed, I'm just surprised. Maybe the people who could take advantage of these markets are just not sufficiently aware of their existence. I predict that in 5 years "who wins Survivor" will be completely dead though, because the markets will have become common knowledge and there'll be enough people willing to violate their NDAs/whatever for the money.
    - FireBeyond 11d ago
      You say in practice, NDAs. What we've seen so far: classified military ops, people with access to Presidential speeches...
      - yorwba 11d ago
        In none of those cases did the market converge as a result of the insider betting, it was only discovered with hindsight that someone had placed a suspiciously well-timed large bet. So that's where "they limit their bet amount for other reasons" comes in. I guess it's difficult to get a large loan for "I know a secret that will allow me to double my money in a few days, honest!" so they have to make do with their savings instead.
- conmod278 12d ago
  "There are three ways to learn. The most noble is by thinking and getting to the truth yourself. The second, which is still pretty good, is by imitating those who do. And the third one is through pain." In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy

jihadjihad 12d ago

> Why would you put money into something knowing that there are people who already have the absolute answer? https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833 https://youtu.be/Hm3mDatFpNE?is=vKkBJs6XsypuD833

echelon 12d ago

That's exactly what "prediction markets" sell themselves as. Super-predictors. Insiders have an edge and can in theory shape the overall distribution of bets such that the real world outcomes are priced in better.

sd9 12d ago
Yes but in this case, tens or hundreds of people know the outcome months in advance. I'm very surprised that the market doesn't immediately converge to 100% for one candidate. The winner is not really a forecastable 'random event' in that by the time the show is airing, it's not being pulled from a distribution.
- yorwba 12d ago
  In theory, an insider willing to take any positive-expectation bet would drive the market price arbitrary close to the correct answer, but in practice they might be under NDA and want to avoid getting caught, or they limit their bet amount for other reasons, so the market ends up dominated by gamblers placing uninformed bets.
  - sd9 12d ago
    Indeed, I'm just surprised. Maybe the people who could take advantage of these markets are just not sufficiently aware of their existence. I predict that in 5 years "who wins Survivor" will be completely dead though, because the markets will have become common knowledge and there'll be enough people willing to violate their NDAs/whatever for the money.
  - FireBeyond 11d ago
    You say in practice, NDAs. What we've seen so far: classified military ops, people with access to Presidential speeches...
    - yorwba 11d ago
      In none of those cases did the market converge as a result of the insider betting, it was only discovered with hindsight that someone had placed a suspiciously well-timed large bet. So that's where "they limit their bet amount for other reasons" comes in. I guess it's difficult to get a large loan for "I know a secret that will allow me to double my money in a few days, honest!" so they have to make do with their savings instead.
conmod278 12d ago
"There are three ways to learn. The most noble is by thinking and getting to the truth yourself. The second, which is still pretty good, is by imitating those who do. And the third one is through pain." In prediction markets, imitation is the best policy