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> I do wonder if the problem with them is that it creates an incentive to share the truth, or for very smart people to predict it.... You missed the obvious on
by ElProlactin 6d ago
> I do wonder if the problem with them is that it creates an incentive to share the truth, or for very smart people to predict it....
You missed the obvious one: it creates a path for people with insider knowledge to monetize it at the expense of employers, institutions, etc.
The guy using his access to classified information to make a few hundred thousand bucks in a day is not interested in "sharing the truth" for the benefit of society.
- Terr_ 6d ago> monetize it at the expense of Right, and I'd also like to preempt any apologetics trying to cloak it as socially-beneficial "information discovery." Many of these betting/insider-trading scenarios are structured so that the information only becomes revealed at the same moment it becomes worthless. (In some cases, that's just a return to its default state.) Like the value of knowing the winning numbers from an expired lotto draw.
- lux-lux-lux 6d agoWhen I saw Ratsphere types pushing these kinds of markets years ago getting insider information was the primary selling point. It’s not inherently stupid - I’d much rather that some lowly analyst sell out an impending stock hit for a few grand than well-positioned insiders soak the market for 10,000x that. There’s obvious moral hazards, though.