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I like to read economics articles on HN because (a) I've been trained as as an economist and (b) I like to read the opinions of other clever people, even (parti
by pash 14y ago
I like to read economics articles on HN because (a) I've been trained as as an economist and (b) I like to read the opinions of other clever people, even (particularly?) those who don't have any background in economic theory.
Let me make a few points:
1) Nothing the OP has written has anything to do with economics.
2) Who pays, which is the subject of the current "fiscal cliff" brinksmanship, is almost entirely a political question, not an economic one. That is, economists' insight into the present American dilemma is mostly limited to a determination of how the distribution of tax receipts under whatever bargain prevails will affect future economic growth. All other considerations are political, and economists like Krugman and Mankiw who weigh in vociferously do so as politicians, not economists.
3) Bailouts come in two distinct flavors: (a) those whose purpose is to provide essential liquidity to the capital markets at the core of our economies, while they're in distress, and (b) those that are basically handouts to the politically connected. Almost always (a) and (b) overlap. In a financial crisis, like the one we went recently went through, initially (a) dominates—"Wall Street" bailouts, necessary bailouts, lead off. Sometimes, as recently, (b) soon gain ground. The bailouts of Detroit, as with pretty much all "Main Street" bailouts, are in the latter category. These are politically motivated, not economically motivated, bailouts
3) I stand (hope!) to gain most of my future income from capital gains. I do not believe that there is any strong argument for treating capital gains differently from other other income as a matter of economic policy. There are, of course, political arguments in either direction.†
4) As I've written in reply to other HN submissions, I see little reason to believe that we are meaningfully nearer an economic singularity with respect to robot labor than in times recently past. Capital has always eroded the position of labor and forced workers into more productive roles that are less directly competitive with machines. If the situation changes dramatically, it will be clear in discussions here long before economists catch on, but we're not there yet. Nowhere close.
† – I am very much an Internet libertarian (small "L"). I despise most taxes, and I believe that much government spending is wasteful in the sense that the money would be more productive, in net, in other uses. I also (b) realize that taxation is as much about values, our values as citizens and as human beings, as it is about economics. (I also am aware that that "the path to hell is paved with good intentions" is close to being a theorem of public finance.) Lastly, my motivation for studying economics has come more from an interest in the various and common ways in which markets fail than from the ways in which they work.
- paganel 14y ago> and economists like Krugman and Mankiw who weigh in vociferously do so as politicians, not economists. You could say that "economics has become the continuation of politics by other means" :) Anyway, just to add to your points to which I mostly agree, it kind of baffles me that economists that hold key positions do not say it out loud that they don't know what they're doing anymore. I mean running the world economy on close to 0% Central Bank rates for almost 3 years now it's like operating your computer on Safe Mode for doing critical "launch a rocket to the Moon" missions (I work as IT, in case it wasn't obvious by now :)).
- pash 14y agoThat's a point well worth making. But in fairness to macro-economists everywhere, most would admit that they don't really have any good idea what they're doing. Central bankers don't say this because their main job is to pretend that the future is brighter than anyone might reasonably think it to be; but academic economists will readily admit that they're in uncharted territory (with landmarks vaguely reminiscent of various times past on every horizon). Can I make a bad analogy?—Macro policy these days is a bit like the Manhattan Project. It's aimed at a greater good, which you might just as well call the lesser evil, and there's a chance (discounted by the mainstream) that they'll ignite the atmosphere and put an end to us all.
- arethuza 14y agoI'd have thought that the biggest risk with the Manhattan Project was that there would be a widespread use of its products without any real thought by politicians as to the consequences - so maybe it's not that bad an analogy after all!
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- rjtavares 14y ago"1) Nothing the OP has written has anything to do with economics." Thank you for saying that. I hate it when mostly moral or political issues are labeled as "economics"...