3 ms·
People who know the most often sound the least certain
- ranger_danger 2mo ago"As a rule, strong feelings about issues do not emerge from deep understanding." -Sloman and Fernbach Also, the Dunning-Kruger effect still applies to smart people. You don't stop when you are estimating your ability correctly; as you learn more, you gain more awareness of your ignorance and continue being conservative with your self-estimates.
- acheron 2mo agoReminder that the “Dunning-Kruger effect” is not real. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49160437 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49160437
- readthenotes1 2mo agoThat reminds me of the old saying " who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"
- atoav 2mo agoAre you really sure you read the discussion on this?
- ranger_danger 2mo agoPlease re-read the first sentence of my previous comment.
- sublinear 2mo agoGenerally speaking, you can't really tell what someone knows based on their words or actions. Performative behavior is not a modern phenomenon. Deceitfulness is so effective we're not going to end it by discussing Dunning-Kruger every chance we get. Mere knowledge is not enough to defeat it, and you'll always be sorry when you underestimate your opponents. It's all ultimately a matter of trust, and that takes time most people don't have or don't want to give. It's more important to stack incentives to compel behavior and hedge your bets against people who seem off.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- gjtz 2mo agoDude is using AI for a slop-post that complains that AI pundits are not persuasive enough and should take acting classes. Really, the one thing missing in 2026 is more and better AI propaganda!
- Grimeton 2mo ago>The people who know the most often sound the least certain As was beautifully demonstrated in this article.
- fasterik 2mo agoIt's revealing that the author thinks that a podcast is the ideal venue to reason through complex technical issues. The "like" phenomenon is less of a verbal fluency issue and more of a cultural one. You can listen to someone smart like Donald Knuth speak and he will definitely stammer and stutter a lot, but he doesn't use filler words. "Like" is more of a West Coast or California thing and I also find it annoying and distracting.
- throwrioawfo 2mo agoNot sure I agree with this. It's often true in SF, but that is largely an affectation, people imitating people like Peter Thiel etc. But not as true elsewhere
- majormajor 2mo agoIn medicine you want the doctor who's willing to admit "we don't understand the exact mechanism here" + also who wants more details from you before making a decision, vs confidently brushing you off and writing a prescription as fast as possible. Lawyers will usually give much less-certain answers to questions like "is it legal to do X" than lay people as well because they're aware of much more nuance in the law. (Not referring to the wishy-washy corporate-law answers given to avoid liability here, but in outside convo about issues.)
- sublinear 2mo agoYes, there is a whole world out there outside of SF. As much as we'd like it to be true, arrogance itself cannot be contained by a mere city! Statistically, the asshole capital of the world really ought to be somewhere in China or India, but the language barrier is too high for most of us to know.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- samstokes 2mo agoThe best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity. - W.B. Yeats
- InfiniteAscent 2mo agoJust a little more effort and STEM people will discover the social sciences. Cute.