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I noticed something odd about Jev. I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. Even though the true probability of face 1 is 1/6,
by kantahayashi 15d ago
I noticed something odd about Jev. I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. Even though the true probability of face 1 is 1/6, Jev always chose 1 and the probability it returned was around 83%.
- juskrey 15d agoOh that's interesting. Probability folds. This invites exploits, among other things.
- kantahayashi 13d agoGood point. I hadn't thought about exploits. I'm writing an article about this finding and referring to your analysis of confidence.