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Is Jev Confident?
- juskrey 12d agoWe reverse engineered and analyzed confidence formulas for Jev's Choice and Score. The latter was not obvious at all. In our opinion, neither is confidence.
- kantahayashi 12d agoI noticed something odd about Jev. I tested Jev with a fair die 400 times without telling it the die result. Even though the true probability of face 1 is 1/6, Jev always chose 1 and the probability it returned was around 83%.
- juskrey 11d agoOh that's interesting. Probability folds. This invites exploits, among other things.
- kantahayashi 10d agoGood point. I hadn't thought about exploits. I'm writing an article about this finding and referring to your analysis of confidence.