2 ms·

What is a bad idea? Defend yourself against an unprovoked military aggression?

specproc 7d ago
Hot war in Europe. We're doing incursions well into Russia. Attempts have been made on the life of Putin and Zelensky, a drone was dangerously close to a bunch of very senior Europeans the other day. It's dangerously out of control. We should be seeking de-escalation for our own sakes. The last two major European wars destroyed empires. We're playing with fire here. I do not want to live through, or die in WW3. I'm worried it's already started.
- bmgoau 7d ago
  Europe, Ukraine and the west do want to de-escalate and end the war that Russia started, it's Putin who has repeatedly said to negotiators directly and on TV he wants to continue escalating and believes it's still possible to take over Ukraine and parts of eastern Europe. It's hard for one side to de-escalate when the other side is an avowed irredentist attempting to rebuild the Russian Empire before they die.
  - specproc 7d ago
    I've not heard a plausible scenario for how this ends. We've had this stagnant wound festering in the middle of Europe for a decade. No one is winning. No one can win, except those who are benefiting from it.
    - bmgoau 7d ago
      To be honest, while Putin is obsessed with irredentism it's either: let him take back all the old Soviet states (which simply won't be tolerated by people there or Europe) or keep up the ongoing defence and make the cost for Russia high enough to stunt them until Putin dies either naturally or by falling out a window. People like Trump and Elon think a deal can be done with Putin or he can be placated, or there's some sort of solution like you're waiting to hear, but all attempts to even begin negotiation fail because Putin is dead set on rebuilding the Empire. Apparently in any discussion about his war he spends hours talking about Russia's historical claims and ownership and shows old documents and books etc. I'm sorry it seems to you like no one has come up with a good solution but it's either give Russia one or more countries (and then he'll want more...) or defend until he loses power or dies. irredentism is a hell of a drug. Putin is fully locked in.
      - geoka9 7d ago
        Regardless of Putin's obsession with Ukraine, the problem is that his clan views this war (and future wars like this) as a campaign to create a new world order where the EU and the US withdraw from supporting countries in what they consider their sphere of influence, and, ultimately, give up any ideas of affecting change inside Russia. It's an age-old story of a crime family holding on to its mafia state.
      - specproc 6d ago
        Yeah, it's this "we continue fighting until Putin eventually dies" line of thinking which horrifies me. Is that our war strategy? That's a recipe for permanent war. It's based on several flawed assumptions: that Putin's death will happen soon, that Putin's death will lead to a leader with a radically different and more amenable geopolitical vision. Do understand that the popular narrative in Russia mirror's the ours exactly: "We can't just roll over and let the West have Ukraine". I'm sorry, but "keep fighting until Putin has a heart attack" is stupid beyond belief. The only way to safely end this conflict is to freeze it. Continuation risks catastrophic escalation.
        bmgoau 5d ago
        Of course it's stupid. This is a stupid war. No one on the Ukraine or EU or western side wants to be in this war. If you're saying defence is not an option are you suggesting we roll over give Putin back the old Soviet states? Let him do his ethnic cleansing? Putin does NOT want to freeze this war, he honestly, truely believes he can continue to weaken the west and Ukraine until he can rebuild his empire. Go read any of his writings or interviews for the last 10 years. He's an irridentist to his bones. This is not the Korean war where a DMZ will be agreed to. While Putin lives he will keep the war going, keep trying to take over Ukraine entirely and the old Soviet states. He sees the loss of the ex Soviet states to the EU as a historic mistake and catastrophe that he intends to set right via military action. While the front might grind to a halt, there's no scenario where he would agree to end the war with just the land he's captured today.

Hot war in Europe. We're doing incursions well into Russia. Attempts have been made on the life of Putin and Zelensky, a drone was dangerously close to a bunch of very senior Europeans the other day. It's dangerously out of control. We should be seeking de-escalation for our own sakes. The last two major European wars destroyed empires. We're playing with fire here. I do not want to live through, or die in WW3. I'm worried it's already started.

bmgoau 7d ago
Europe, Ukraine and the west do want to de-escalate and end the war that Russia started, it's Putin who has repeatedly said to negotiators directly and on TV he wants to continue escalating and believes it's still possible to take over Ukraine and parts of eastern Europe. It's hard for one side to de-escalate when the other side is an avowed irredentist attempting to rebuild the Russian Empire before they die.
- specproc 7d ago
  I've not heard a plausible scenario for how this ends. We've had this stagnant wound festering in the middle of Europe for a decade. No one is winning. No one can win, except those who are benefiting from it.
  - bmgoau 7d ago
    To be honest, while Putin is obsessed with irredentism it's either: let him take back all the old Soviet states (which simply won't be tolerated by people there or Europe) or keep up the ongoing defence and make the cost for Russia high enough to stunt them until Putin dies either naturally or by falling out a window. People like Trump and Elon think a deal can be done with Putin or he can be placated, or there's some sort of solution like you're waiting to hear, but all attempts to even begin negotiation fail because Putin is dead set on rebuilding the Empire. Apparently in any discussion about his war he spends hours talking about Russia's historical claims and ownership and shows old documents and books etc. I'm sorry it seems to you like no one has come up with a good solution but it's either give Russia one or more countries (and then he'll want more...) or defend until he loses power or dies. irredentism is a hell of a drug. Putin is fully locked in.
    - geoka9 7d ago
      Regardless of Putin's obsession with Ukraine, the problem is that his clan views this war (and future wars like this) as a campaign to create a new world order where the EU and the US withdraw from supporting countries in what they consider their sphere of influence, and, ultimately, give up any ideas of affecting change inside Russia. It's an age-old story of a crime family holding on to its mafia state.
    - specproc 6d ago
      Yeah, it's this "we continue fighting until Putin eventually dies" line of thinking which horrifies me. Is that our war strategy? That's a recipe for permanent war. It's based on several flawed assumptions: that Putin's death will happen soon, that Putin's death will lead to a leader with a radically different and more amenable geopolitical vision. Do understand that the popular narrative in Russia mirror's the ours exactly: "We can't just roll over and let the West have Ukraine". I'm sorry, but "keep fighting until Putin has a heart attack" is stupid beyond belief. The only way to safely end this conflict is to freeze it. Continuation risks catastrophic escalation.
      - bmgoau 5d ago
        Of course it's stupid. This is a stupid war. No one on the Ukraine or EU or western side wants to be in this war. If you're saying defence is not an option are you suggesting we roll over give Putin back the old Soviet states? Let him do his ethnic cleansing? Putin does NOT want to freeze this war, he honestly, truely believes he can continue to weaken the west and Ukraine until he can rebuild his empire. Go read any of his writings or interviews for the last 10 years. He's an irridentist to his bones. This is not the Korean war where a DMZ will be agreed to. While Putin lives he will keep the war going, keep trying to take over Ukraine entirely and the old Soviet states. He sees the loss of the ex Soviet states to the EU as a historic mistake and catastrophe that he intends to set right via military action. While the front might grind to a halt, there's no scenario where he would agree to end the war with just the land he's captured today.