3 ms·
"Russia will never start an open war with Ukraine" Was the common talking point even in early february of 2022
by TiredOfLife 7d ago
"Russia will never start an open war with Ukraine"
Was the common talking point even in early february of 2022
- pier25 7d agoThe current situation is completely different to 2022. To begin with Russia is almost exhausted after these years of war.
- fatbird 7d agoRussia has a million man standing army that's now thoroughly blooded and well versed in modern warfare, and an industrial base that's retooled to supply such an army (i.e., drones and missiles). The only problem for them is that they're facing the only other large, experienced army in the world. Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere, then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. Now imagine that a half million Russian soldiers show up on the border of Estonia, Finland, Kazhakstan, or Georgia. Yes, Russia is exhausted and doing deep structural damage to its economy. It still has one of the best land forces in the world at the moment. The way Ukraine always smokes NATO forces in exercises is a strong indicator of what would happen if Russia decided to "liberate" the Baltics.
- geoka9 7d agoVery good points in your replies! > Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere,then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. They'd have to give up a big chunk of the occupied land to do that, since creating that line within 50 km of the front line would now be much harder than it was 3 years ago. Who knows, maybe that's what's stopping them from attacking another country as you described.
- TiredOfLife 6d agoThey wouldn't need to give up anything. Defending needs less people than attacking.