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Russia will never start an open war with the UK or any EU country. They can barely handle Ukraine imagine that plus any other country.

by pier25 8d ago

deleted 8d ago
[deleted]
Lumich 8d ago
If it were only the Ukraine the war would have long been over. The West block has supplied more than $500 billion in aid to the Ukraine, that's more than twice the US lend/lease to the Soviet Union in 2026 dollars. Plus intelligence information and probably other things I'm forgetting. The more dollars are sent to Kiev, the more blood and lives the Ukrainians are expected to invest. That's the deal.
- cosmicgadget 7d ago
  ... because American or European boots on the ground would be viewed as escalatory by an extremely embarrassed Russian state.
TiredOfLife 8d ago
"Russia will never start an open war with Ukraine" Was the common talking point even in early february of 2022
- pier25 7d ago
  The current situation is completely different to 2022. To begin with Russia is almost exhausted after these years of war.
  - fatbird 7d ago
    Russia has a million man standing army that's now thoroughly blooded and well versed in modern warfare, and an industrial base that's retooled to supply such an army (i.e., drones and missiles). The only problem for them is that they're facing the only other large, experienced army in the world. Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere, then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. Now imagine that a half million Russian soldiers show up on the border of Estonia, Finland, Kazhakstan, or Georgia. Yes, Russia is exhausted and doing deep structural damage to its economy. It still has one of the best land forces in the world at the moment. The way Ukraine always smokes NATO forces in exercises is a strong indicator of what would happen if Russia decided to "liberate" the Baltics.
    - geoka9 7d ago
      Very good points in your replies! > Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere,then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. They'd have to give up a big chunk of the occupied land to do that, since creating that line within 50 km of the front line would now be much harder than it was 3 years ago. Who knows, maybe that's what's stopping them from attacking another country as you described.
      - TiredOfLife 6d ago
        They wouldn't need to give up anything. Defending needs less people than attacking.
notaigenerated 8d ago
Ukraine is the biggest country on European continent. It has the most capable military in Europe right now. And it's backed by Europe economically. Saying that Russia can't defeat them is not the insult you think it is. If Russia mobilized 1M people and went full on war in a month, they'd easily take over the Baltics, took half of Poland and bombed the F out of Germany and France. They'd lose eventually if Europe woke up from its delusions, but they definitely can take over most of Eastern Europe.
- pier25 7d ago
  > Saying that Russia can't defeat them is not the insult you think it is Well I never said that.
- cosmicgadget 7d ago
  The most capable military in Europe is NATO, if that counts. Russia doesn't have the armor or logistics to "easily take over the Baltics", particularly considering it would trigger Article V. The Russian Air Force could not hope to bomb anything beyond the range of standoff munitions.
  - fatbird 7d ago
    NATO has virtually no experience in modern warfare, which is substantially different than how they're organized now. NATO is well equipped for an armor-centric battle of maneuver, but Ukraine showed that's not at all how it has to be fought. Russia wouldn't use armor or logistics to take over the Baltics. They've already got their human waves and infantry infiltration tactics worked out, under a cloud of drones and cruise missiles that NATO has no counter for (and the US just disbanded its drone warfare division because drones aren't manly enough for Hegseth).
    - cosmicgadget 7d ago
      > Ukraine showed that's not at all how it has to be fought. You're taking a regional conflict between militaries using cold war gear and drones and saying "this is what warfare is now". > They've already got their human waves and infantry infiltration tactics worked out A million casualties and three-year stalemate in Ukraine is "worked out"? Good for them. I see those swarms are especially effective at defending energy infrastructure, something that's of particular concern when you're fighting an alliance with stealth aircraft. > under a cloud of drones and cruise missiles that NATO has no counter for This is the Russian drone infantry currently occupying Kyiv? > the US just disbanded its drone warfare division because drones aren't manly enough for Hegseth Please explain what you think this means.

Russia will never start an open war with the UK or any EU country. They can barely handle Ukraine imagine that plus any other country.

by pier25 8d ago

Russia will never start an open war with the UK or any EU country. They can barely handle Ukraine imagine that plus any other country.

deleted 8d ago

[deleted]

Lumich 8d ago

If it were only the Ukraine the war would have long been over. The West block has supplied more than $500 billion in aid to the Ukraine, that's more than twice the US lend/lease to the Soviet Union in 2026 dollars. Plus intelligence information and probably other things I'm forgetting. The more dollars are sent to Kiev, the more blood and lives the Ukrainians are expected to invest. That's the deal.

cosmicgadget 7d ago
... because American or European boots on the ground would be viewed as escalatory by an extremely embarrassed Russian state.

TiredOfLife 8d ago

"Russia will never start an open war with Ukraine" Was the common talking point even in early february of 2022

pier25 7d ago
The current situation is completely different to 2022. To begin with Russia is almost exhausted after these years of war.
- fatbird 7d ago
  Russia has a million man standing army that's now thoroughly blooded and well versed in modern warfare, and an industrial base that's retooled to supply such an army (i.e., drones and missiles). The only problem for them is that they're facing the only other large, experienced army in the world. Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere, then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. Now imagine that a half million Russian soldiers show up on the border of Estonia, Finland, Kazhakstan, or Georgia. Yes, Russia is exhausted and doing deep structural damage to its economy. It still has one of the best land forces in the world at the moment. The way Ukraine always smokes NATO forces in exercises is a strong indicator of what would happen if Russia decided to "liberate" the Baltics.
  - geoka9 7d ago
    Very good points in your replies! > Imagine if tomorrow, Russia went on the defensive and froze its lines in Ukraine, setting up Surovikin lines everywhere,then withdrew half the forces it has currently committed. They'd have to give up a big chunk of the occupied land to do that, since creating that line within 50 km of the front line would now be much harder than it was 3 years ago. Who knows, maybe that's what's stopping them from attacking another country as you described.
    - TiredOfLife 6d ago
      They wouldn't need to give up anything. Defending needs less people than attacking.

notaigenerated 8d ago

Ukraine is the biggest country on European continent. It has the most capable military in Europe right now. And it's backed by Europe economically. Saying that Russia can't defeat them is not the insult you think it is. If Russia mobilized 1M people and went full on war in a month, they'd easily take over the Baltics, took half of Poland and bombed the F out of Germany and France. They'd lose eventually if Europe woke up from its delusions, but they definitely can take over most of Eastern Europe.

pier25 7d ago
> Saying that Russia can't defeat them is not the insult you think it is Well I never said that.
cosmicgadget 7d ago
The most capable military in Europe is NATO, if that counts. Russia doesn't have the armor or logistics to "easily take over the Baltics", particularly considering it would trigger Article V. The Russian Air Force could not hope to bomb anything beyond the range of standoff munitions.
- fatbird 7d ago
  NATO has virtually no experience in modern warfare, which is substantially different than how they're organized now. NATO is well equipped for an armor-centric battle of maneuver, but Ukraine showed that's not at all how it has to be fought. Russia wouldn't use armor or logistics to take over the Baltics. They've already got their human waves and infantry infiltration tactics worked out, under a cloud of drones and cruise missiles that NATO has no counter for (and the US just disbanded its drone warfare division because drones aren't manly enough for Hegseth).
  - cosmicgadget 7d ago
    > Ukraine showed that's not at all how it has to be fought. You're taking a regional conflict between militaries using cold war gear and drones and saying "this is what warfare is now". > They've already got their human waves and infantry infiltration tactics worked out A million casualties and three-year stalemate in Ukraine is "worked out"? Good for them. I see those swarms are especially effective at defending energy infrastructure, something that's of particular concern when you're fighting an alliance with stealth aircraft. > under a cloud of drones and cruise missiles that NATO has no counter for This is the Russian drone infantry currently occupying Kyiv? > the US just disbanded its drone warfare division because drones aren't manly enough for Hegseth Please explain what you think this means.