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> Whether US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics. Unfortunately it is. When there is no oil coming to the US any

> Whether US is self sufficient or not is not that important as net production and its dynamics. Unfortunately it is. When there is no oil coming to the US any more that US refineries can handle and process into the stuff the US needs... all the reserves and production capacity the US has don't matter. The US cannot process its own oil.

vel0city 17d ago
> The US cannot process its own oil. Today? No. A year or so, with the right economic incentive/certainty? Sure. Most US produced oil is the easiest to refine stuff. It's got some of the highest demand on the global market. Makes sense to sell it. The stuff we're set up to refine mostly? The hardest stuff to refine. The cheapest shit out there. We can add the most value buying that stuff and refining it. It also gives a lot of "byproducts" which are useful for plastics and other things which help give even more returns per barrel. It's really not that hard to change a refinery to go from the heavy and sour junk to the light, sweet stuff. You essentially just end up bypassing a lot of equipment that's just no longer needed, with some other changes in processes. It's very expensive and complicated to go the other way, needing lots of new equipment among other things. If we absolutely needed to, it wouldn't be incredibly challenging to retool to refine US produced oil. It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. And even a several month hit, it doesn't make sense to retool. A persistent expected future where we just won't get that heavy sour stuff anymore, sure, they'll retool. The biggest "cost" is they'll have a bunch of expensive machines sitting unused, and a bunch of new pipe to install to bypass it.
- mschuster91 17d ago
  > It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. Agreed. And that's where I see the biggest problems. There is no economic incentive for refineries to retool - if there is a supply crunch, they can make much, much more profit with the captive audience that is the utterly car-hooked American population. The government would have to order refineries to retool, but that is extremely, extremely unlikely to happen in the next two years. After that, maybe. Side note: you mentioned earlier that it might be possible to extend production in Venezuela... unfortunately, I don't think that's possible. Their infrastructure is horribly outdated and by all accounts more broken than even in somewhat of a working order. And thanks to Iran blasting a lot of MENA refinery equipment, the manufacturers of such equipment are booked out - there's estimates that it may take half a decade to rebuild all what was destroyed. And the demands of Russia are further adding strain on the supplier market.
  - vel0city 17d ago
    > if there is a supply crunch, they can make much, much more profit with the captive audience that is the utterly car-hooked American population. This only holds true until the first big refinery bothers retooling, then you're late to the party and suddenly aren't in place to produce nearly as much as your competitors. > you mentioned earlier that it might be possible to extend production in Venezuela I don't recall saying that, at least any time recently. You must be confusing me with someone else. I do agree with you though. Rebuilding those fields would be incredibly expensive and take a while to produce some of the lowest quality oil out there. Things would be so much nicer if relations never fell apart and the US and Venezuela kept those fields operational.
    - mschuster91 17d ago
      > I don't recall saying that, at least any time recently. You must be confusing me with someone else. Indeed, sorry, didn't realize that the username I replied to had changed. My bad. > This only holds true until the first big refinery bothers retooling, then you're otw to the party and suddenly aren't in place to produce nearly as much as your competitors. Well... theoretically there would be an agency responsible to follow up on violations of antitrust regulations. Practically it's been toothless before the current Presidency, nowadays it's degenerated into being yet another weapon to wield. Hand the President enough money and he'll not care what you do.

vel0city 17d ago

> The US cannot process its own oil. Today? No. A year or so, with the right economic incentive/certainty? Sure. Most US produced oil is the easiest to refine stuff. It's got some of the highest demand on the global market. Makes sense to sell it. The stuff we're set up to refine mostly? The hardest stuff to refine. The cheapest shit out there. We can add the most value buying that stuff and refining it. It also gives a lot of "byproducts" which are useful for plastics and other things which help give even more returns per barrel. It's really not that hard to change a refinery to go from the heavy and sour junk to the light, sweet stuff. You essentially just end up bypassing a lot of equipment that's just no longer needed, with some other changes in processes. It's very expensive and complicated to go the other way, needing lots of new equipment among other things. If we absolutely needed to, it wouldn't be incredibly challenging to retool to refine US produced oil. It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. And even a several month hit, it doesn't make sense to retool. A persistent expected future where we just won't get that heavy sour stuff anymore, sure, they'll retool. The biggest "cost" is they'll have a bunch of expensive machines sitting unused, and a bunch of new pipe to install to bypass it.

mschuster91 17d ago
> It doesn't currently make sense economically for most refiners, so they don't. Agreed. And that's where I see the biggest problems. There is no economic incentive for refineries to retool - if there is a supply crunch, they can make much, much more profit with the captive audience that is the utterly car-hooked American population. The government would have to order refineries to retool, but that is extremely, extremely unlikely to happen in the next two years. After that, maybe. Side note: you mentioned earlier that it might be possible to extend production in Venezuela... unfortunately, I don't think that's possible. Their infrastructure is horribly outdated and by all accounts more broken than even in somewhat of a working order. And thanks to Iran blasting a lot of MENA refinery equipment, the manufacturers of such equipment are booked out - there's estimates that it may take half a decade to rebuild all what was destroyed. And the demands of Russia are further adding strain on the supplier market.
- vel0city 17d ago
  > if there is a supply crunch, they can make much, much more profit with the captive audience that is the utterly car-hooked American population. This only holds true until the first big refinery bothers retooling, then you're late to the party and suddenly aren't in place to produce nearly as much as your competitors. > you mentioned earlier that it might be possible to extend production in Venezuela I don't recall saying that, at least any time recently. You must be confusing me with someone else. I do agree with you though. Rebuilding those fields would be incredibly expensive and take a while to produce some of the lowest quality oil out there. Things would be so much nicer if relations never fell apart and the US and Venezuela kept those fields operational.
  - mschuster91 17d ago
    > I don't recall saying that, at least any time recently. You must be confusing me with someone else. Indeed, sorry, didn't realize that the username I replied to had changed. My bad. > This only holds true until the first big refinery bothers retooling, then you're otw to the party and suddenly aren't in place to produce nearly as much as your competitors. Well... theoretically there would be an agency responsible to follow up on violations of antitrust regulations. Practically it's been toothless before the current Presidency, nowadays it's degenerated into being yet another weapon to wield. Hand the President enough money and he'll not care what you do.