I think a lot of people will tell you that now it's much easier because they can just ask their LLM how it works, but in practice I don't think people are able

I think a lot of people will tell you that now it's much easier because they can just ask their LLM how it works, but in practice I don't think people are able to absorb enough from these purely need-based interactions to arrive at understanding that translates into sustained long-term increases in productivity for large projects. The thing I keep seeing is greenfield AI projects built by ill-conceived, self-styled software factories. They grow incredibly quickly, and then reality sets in and the pace slows. Demonstrating this is difficult. There are real productivity increases to be had here no doubt, but the long tail is still expensive.