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I don't understand your analogy. Are you just suggesting that luck plays too large a role in this contest? Clearly there is some "skill" or ability factor becau
by cman1444 16d ago
I don't understand your analogy. Are you just suggesting that luck plays too large a role in this contest? Clearly there is some "skill" or ability factor because AI's have been scoring higher and higher each year. Also, they make reference to superforecaster humans, who are presumably consistently better at forecasting than their peers.
- ratelimitsteve 15d agoi'm not looking at the guesses, i'm looking at the distribution of guesser success rates. assuming random distribution, counterintuitively enough, you would expect some guessers to appear much better or much worse than others. i know i'm not the first person to think of this, so i'm asking what's been done to mitigate it because i can't find anything. if you expect x% of guesses to be within two std devs of the mean that means you can expect 100-x% to be outside that, even without any guessers actually being better at guessing than any of the others.
- chumzygood 13d ago[flagged]