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oh i dont think its 'dead' in the way people often describe. More...done. Like, the period of obscene growth is over and its now seemingly settled into a fairly

by esskay 18d ago

oh i dont think its 'dead' in the way people often describe. More...done. Like, the period of obscene growth is over and its now seemingly settled into a fairly dull investment with mediocre returns.

sph 18d ago
Well, that’s what people have said all the way to $70k+ price.
- ForHackernews 18d ago
  It's underperformed the S&P500 over the last 5 years, but you know what they say about past performance not predicting future returns. Maybe AI will unlock an untapped reservoir of ever-greater fools.
singiamtel 18d ago
Isn't that a good thing? The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile.
- Forgeties79 18d ago
  But the volatility hasn’t gone away. Compared to previous periods of broader interest in it (rife with the awful FOMO habits of people) sure it’s not as bad, but it still fluctuates wildly and without warning. In the past 12mo it has gone as high as 120k and as low as 60k, currently around 76k. You cannot reasonably use a currency like that. Your wealth can’t be doubling or halving over months with 10pt swings over a single day being a common occurrence. How much mental energy and planning would have to go into timing any and all purchases and earning? Better odds than a casino, but still basically a casino.
  - andirk 16d ago
    Compare to stonks or precious metals and it's a similar, mostly unknowing situation.
    - Forgeties79 15d ago
      Oh come now
- hattmall 18d ago
  It would be, except when the primary value proposition is capturing the upside of that volatility. In the case of BTC a sustained lack of volatility is going to create significant downward pricing pressure. At some point that will trigger a run and as stakeholders have condensed the rut will get deeper and deeper as the upside of the volatility swings continually lower.
- nicce 18d ago
  > The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile. Also the transaction cost. Is it any better?
  - bittwiddle 18d ago
    https://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning https://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning Its about 2 cents for a coffee(10k sats ~= 7.6 usd), or 0.2%. Versus 1.5-3.5% that visa typically charges.
- andirk 16d ago
  I moved some BTC from Coinbase today, which is a pricier option, and they took a house rake of 1.8%. Other moves cost way way less, especially if not in a hurry and the network isn't busy. My situation compares to a remittances transfer like Western Union https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_D_Fee_table_update_EN_v2_LowRes.pdf https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_... which charge about 4%+. Cash-to-cash is free, but it loses value while it sits under your mattress.
dmantis 18d ago
Depends on the actor. From western perspective, maybe, but there are many people in the world who don't trust neither their government, nor western ones: Iranians, Russians, some Chinese, etc. BTC is a nice safe place for money, which can't be touched by neither of state adversaries. Underperforming some other asset classes is totally acceptable, when your expectation for the brokerage account is effectively zero after arrest/freeze/sanctions.
- eru 18d ago
  I would buy your argument, if bitcoin were the only cryptocurrency. For most of the people you mention, a fiduciary cryptocurrency like these 'stable coins' is the better product. (If you don't trust the value of the USD, and thus don't want a stable coin linked to that, you could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar.)
  - dmantis 18d ago
    > could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar. Well, if only we had something like that with a proper liquidity! USDT/USDC are useful for the exchange to fiat, but have freeze function in their contract, thus posing a risk for big longterm savings, and they rot under the inflation (which btc generally beats). There are indeed a couple of unfreezable stablecoins, but they don't have mainstream adoption and proper liquidity. USDT kind of captured the market by being first, and USDC is heavily pushed by the major institutional players, so here we are. But that's true, it's more about crypto in general.
- AIiscoming 18d ago
  BTC can be touched by state actors easily. Has been proofen often enough. State actors can just hurt your famiily. State actors can setup a shadow bitcoin infrastructure and give you the feeling that your wallet is a save bitcoin wallet. They can Hijack the website you download the initial bitcoin wallet, the nodes you talk to.
  - dmantis 18d ago
pjc50 18d ago
People found a new way to turn electricity into money at the expense of the atmosphere: AI.
- eru 18d ago
  Ethereum, for all its other faults, has shown that burning lots of electricity is not necessary for cryptocurrencies.
- briansm 18d ago
  Fossil fuels were always worth way more than people ever realized. Like Joni says, "you don't know what you've got till it's gone."

by esskay 18d ago

oh i dont think its 'dead' in the way people often describe. More...done. Like, the period of obscene growth is over and its now seemingly settled into a fairly dull investment with mediocre returns.

sph 18d ago

Well, that’s what people have said all the way to $70k+ price.

ForHackernews 18d ago
It's underperformed the S&P500 over the last 5 years, but you know what they say about past performance not predicting future returns. Maybe AI will unlock an untapped reservoir of ever-greater fools.

singiamtel 18d ago

Isn't that a good thing? The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile.

Forgeties79 18d ago
But the volatility hasn’t gone away. Compared to previous periods of broader interest in it (rife with the awful FOMO habits of people) sure it’s not as bad, but it still fluctuates wildly and without warning. In the past 12mo it has gone as high as 120k and as low as 60k, currently around 76k. You cannot reasonably use a currency like that. Your wealth can’t be doubling or halving over months with 10pt swings over a single day being a common occurrence. How much mental energy and planning would have to go into timing any and all purchases and earning? Better odds than a casino, but still basically a casino.
- andirk 16d ago
  Compare to stonks or precious metals and it's a similar, mostly unknowing situation.
  - Forgeties79 15d ago
    Oh come now
hattmall 18d ago
It would be, except when the primary value proposition is capturing the upside of that volatility. In the case of BTC a sustained lack of volatility is going to create significant downward pricing pressure. At some point that will trigger a run and as stakeholders have condensed the rut will get deeper and deeper as the upside of the volatility swings continually lower.
nicce 18d ago
> The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile. Also the transaction cost. Is it any better?
- bittwiddle 18d ago
  https://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning https://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning Its about 2 cents for a coffee(10k sats ~= 7.6 usd), or 0.2%. Versus 1.5-3.5% that visa typically charges.
andirk 16d ago
I moved some BTC from Coinbase today, which is a pricier option, and they took a house rake of 1.8%. Other moves cost way way less, especially if not in a hurry and the network isn't busy. My situation compares to a remittances transfer like Western Union https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_D_Fee_table_update_EN_v2_LowRes.pdf https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_... which charge about 4%+. Cash-to-cash is free, but it loses value while it sits under your mattress.

dmantis 18d ago

Depends on the actor. From western perspective, maybe, but there are many people in the world who don't trust neither their government, nor western ones: Iranians, Russians, some Chinese, etc. BTC is a nice safe place for money, which can't be touched by neither of state adversaries. Underperforming some other asset classes is totally acceptable, when your expectation for the brokerage account is effectively zero after arrest/freeze/sanctions.

eru 18d ago
I would buy your argument, if bitcoin were the only cryptocurrency. For most of the people you mention, a fiduciary cryptocurrency like these 'stable coins' is the better product. (If you don't trust the value of the USD, and thus don't want a stable coin linked to that, you could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar.)
- dmantis 18d ago
  > could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar. Well, if only we had something like that with a proper liquidity! USDT/USDC are useful for the exchange to fiat, but have freeze function in their contract, thus posing a risk for big longterm savings, and they rot under the inflation (which btc generally beats). There are indeed a couple of unfreezable stablecoins, but they don't have mainstream adoption and proper liquidity. USDT kind of captured the market by being first, and USDC is heavily pushed by the major institutional players, so here we are. But that's true, it's more about crypto in general.
AIiscoming 18d ago
BTC can be touched by state actors easily. Has been proofen often enough. State actors can just hurt your famiily. State actors can setup a shadow bitcoin infrastructure and give you the feeling that your wallet is a save bitcoin wallet. They can Hijack the website you download the initial bitcoin wallet, the nodes you talk to.
- dmantis 18d ago

pjc50 18d ago

People found a new way to turn electricity into money at the expense of the atmosphere: AI.

eru 18d ago
Ethereum, for all its other faults, has shown that burning lots of electricity is not necessary for cryptocurrencies.
briansm 18d ago
Fossil fuels were always worth way more than people ever realized. Like Joni says, "you don't know what you've got till it's gone."