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I know you're joking but keeping bitcoin now really does feel like a poor investment given it's showing no signs of ever being revived.
by esskay 18d ago
I know you're joking but keeping bitcoin now really does feel like a poor investment given it's showing no signs of ever being revived.
- accountrequired 18d agoBitcoin died *again*? hehe :P
- esskay 18d agooh i dont think its 'dead' in the way people often describe. More...done. Like, the period of obscene growth is over and its now seemingly settled into a fairly dull investment with mediocre returns.
- sph 18d agoWell, that’s what people have said all the way to $70k+ price.
- ForHackernews 18d agoIt's underperformed the S&P500 over the last 5 years, but you know what they say about past performance not predicting future returns. Maybe AI will unlock an untapped reservoir of ever-greater fools.
- singiamtel 18d agoIsn't that a good thing? The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile.
- Forgeties79 18d agoBut the volatility hasn’t gone away. Compared to previous periods of broader interest in it (rife with the awful FOMO habits of people) sure it’s not as bad, but it still fluctuates wildly and without warning. In the past 12mo it has gone as high as 120k and as low as 60k, currently around 76k. You cannot reasonably use a currency like that. Your wealth can’t be doubling or halving over months with 10pt swings over a single day being a common occurrence. How much mental energy and planning would have to go into timing any and all purchases and earning? Better odds than a casino, but still basically a casino.
- andirk 16d agoCompare to stonks or precious metals and it's a similar, mostly unknowing situation.
- Forgeties79 15d agoOh come now
- hattmall 18d agoIt would be, except when the primary value proposition is capturing the upside of that volatility. In the case of BTC a sustained lack of volatility is going to create significant downward pricing pressure. At some point that will trigger a run and as stakeholders have condensed the rut will get deeper and deeper as the upside of the volatility swings continually lower.
- nicce 18d ago> The main argument I've heard against using bitcoin as currency is that it's too volatile. Also the transaction cost. Is it any better?
- bittwiddle 18d agohttps://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning https://bitcoincalculator.tools/calculators/lightning Its about 2 cents for a coffee(10k sats ~= 7.6 usd), or 0.2%. Versus 1.5-3.5% that visa typically charges.
- andirk 16d agoI moved some BTC from Coinbase today, which is a pricier option, and they took a house rake of 1.8%. Other moves cost way way less, especially if not in a hurry and the network isn't busy. My situation compares to a remittances transfer like Western Union https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_D_Fee_table_update_EN_v2_LowRes.pdf https://www.westernunion.com/content/dam/wu/EU/EN/210439812_... which charge about 4%+. Cash-to-cash is free, but it loses value while it sits under your mattress.
- dmantis 18d agoDepends on the actor. From western perspective, maybe, but there are many people in the world who don't trust neither their government, nor western ones: Iranians, Russians, some Chinese, etc. BTC is a nice safe place for money, which can't be touched by neither of state adversaries. Underperforming some other asset classes is totally acceptable, when your expectation for the brokerage account is effectively zero after arrest/freeze/sanctions.
- eru 18d agoI would buy your argument, if bitcoin were the only cryptocurrency. For most of the people you mention, a fiduciary cryptocurrency like these 'stable coins' is the better product. (If you don't trust the value of the USD, and thus don't want a stable coin linked to that, you could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar.)
- dmantis 18d ago> could use one that's linked to Swiss Franks or the Singapore dollar. Well, if only we had something like that with a proper liquidity! USDT/USDC are useful for the exchange to fiat, but have freeze function in their contract, thus posing a risk for big longterm savings, and they rot under the inflation (which btc generally beats). There are indeed a couple of unfreezable stablecoins, but they don't have mainstream adoption and proper liquidity. USDT kind of captured the market by being first, and USDC is heavily pushed by the major institutional players, so here we are. But that's true, it's more about crypto in general.
- AIiscoming 18d agoBTC can be touched by state actors easily. Has been proofen often enough. State actors can just hurt your famiily. State actors can setup a shadow bitcoin infrastructure and give you the feeling that your wallet is a save bitcoin wallet. They can Hijack the website you download the initial bitcoin wallet, the nodes you talk to.
- dmantis 18d ago
- pjc50 18d agoPeople found a new way to turn electricity into money at the expense of the atmosphere: AI.
- w4yai 18d agohttps://bitcoindeaths.com/ https://bitcoindeaths.com/
- pluc 18d agowhat is dead may never die
- HughParry 17d agobut rises again, harder and stronger
- suddenlybananas 18d agoThe log scale is awfully misleading, especially since money doesn't really work like that.
- cannonpalms 18d agoAnything but a log scale would be misleading. When showing long term growth of something that has grown so drastically, it is imperative to use a log scale so that 10% gains look consistent over time. Especially in finance.
- john_strinlai 18d agoyou can press the "linear" button if you'd like. but i think the primary point of the comment was to highlight the "Bitcoin has been declared dead 478 times" part
- sjbzbeiks 18d agoyeah I mean it just depends on time horizons, if you bought at 117k you are hurting now if you need the money ASAP. Also, I gotta say I do not think Bitcoin is a bubble or whatever (IMO a real value there), but really this sort of site makes it seem like it is a bubble with the sort of "blind to history" boosterism. Go read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, or Market Wizards series, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, or any number of books about financial history and there are endless people saying 'it will never die and all the doubters are just wrong' before any big market crash.
- zeofig 18d agoBuy signal
- dakolli 18d ago[dead]