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> Accepting the reality of the coming machine god after it’s solved Navier-Stokes One thing that stands out to me about this whole ordeal is how little appreci

> Accepting the reality of the coming machine god after it’s solved Navier-Stokes One thing that stands out to me about this whole ordeal is how little appreciation there is for the fact that instead of there having been one machine god involved, it was the work of ten thousand or more. I think it's all too easy to forget, maybe even mistakenly assume otherwise, that the prompt you put into the chat textbox is not going to receive the same kind of machine attention the NS problem did. The models are really impressive, but I don't think it's cope to remark that this was in essence a 1:10000 chance outcome. This is assuredly closer than it ever has been, or was even imagined to be, but is still far from the image these announcement paints in one's head. Astra's successor is not going to solve millenium problems for you. Even if they double in capability each generation as claimed, you're still to wait until GPT-16 till you will have a millenium problem capable model in your service; and even if they release twice a year, that's still almost a decade away.

bryan0 15d ago
> The models are really impressive, but I don't think it's cope to remark that this was in essence a 1:10000 chance outcome. I don’t think that’s an accurate way to think about what’s going on. These agents are not acting independently where one might get lucky. They coordinate how they work by dividing up work into teams. > Even if they double in capability each generation as claimed, you're still to wait until GPT-16 till you will have a millenium problem capable model in your service; and even if they release twice a year, that's still almost a decade away. Having a publicly accessible AI able to solve millennium problems within a decade is still pretty shocking. I did a similar calculation looking at how long would today’s $10m in spend cost $100 and came up with a similar answer (8.3 years) using METR’s “Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models”[0] [0]: https://metr.org/time-horizons/ https://metr.org/time-horizons/
- reasonableklout 14d ago
  The prospect of the ordinary chatbot being equivalent to a ten thousand Astra agent swarm intelligence makes me feel incredibly small. What will society even look like then?
  - perching_aix 14d ago
    Now imagine that, but also imagine it being cheap enough to swarm it, and/or it being hardware accelerated like Sol Ultrafast (1400 tok/sec) or ChatJimmy (17000 tok/sec).
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bryan0 15d ago

> The models are really impressive, but I don't think it's cope to remark that this was in essence a 1:10000 chance outcome. I don’t think that’s an accurate way to think about what’s going on. These agents are not acting independently where one might get lucky. They coordinate how they work by dividing up work into teams. > Even if they double in capability each generation as claimed, you're still to wait until GPT-16 till you will have a millenium problem capable model in your service; and even if they release twice a year, that's still almost a decade away. Having a publicly accessible AI able to solve millennium problems within a decade is still pretty shocking. I did a similar calculation looking at how long would today’s $10m in spend cost $100 and came up with a similar answer (8.3 years) using METR’s “Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI Models”[0] [0]: https://metr.org/time-horizons/ https://metr.org/time-horizons/

reasonableklout 14d ago
The prospect of the ordinary chatbot being equivalent to a ten thousand Astra agent swarm intelligence makes me feel incredibly small. What will society even look like then?
- perching_aix 14d ago
  Now imagine that, but also imagine it being cheap enough to swarm it, and/or it being hardware accelerated like Sol Ultrafast (1400 tok/sec) or ChatJimmy (17000 tok/sec).

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