2 ms·

China's pretty good at bending the curve. I expect that by the end of 2027 we'll see a lot more available for consumers. As others have pointed out, this might

China's pretty good at bending the curve. I expect that by the end of 2027 we'll see a lot more available for consumers. As others have pointed out, this might not be available in US markets. "CXMT currently has two 12-inch DRAM fabrication plants — or fabs - in Hefei and one in Beijing, with a combined capacity of about 300,000 wafers per month. With the new Shanghai facility and other new capacity, CXMT will double its DRAM wafer output to approximately 600,000 wafers per month, all three sources added." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-cxmt-wins-3-billion-memory-supply-deal-with-tencent-sources-say-2026-06-29/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-cxmt-wins-3-billi...

rdedev 9d ago
This is probably my ignorance but why are we assuming that CXMT capacity will also not be gobbled up for datacenters?
- quux0r 9d ago
  If I'm not mistaken I believe that CXMT's fabrication process is not suitable for manufacturing within the super tight tolerances that are needed for data center HBM, but I may be mis remembering. I think I recall a chart from somewhere showing that frontier memory manufacturers could achieve something like double the memory throughput for example.
  - jauntywundrkind 9d ago
    allegedly the yields are not great https://www.techpowerup.com/352511/cxmt-reportedly-struggles-with-hbm3e-yields-are-only-25 https://www.techpowerup.com/352511/cxmt-reportedly-struggles... but i feel like this will not last that long and that cxmt will be layering dram for hbm stacks with abandon, like everyone else, uninterested in selling ram to anyone else. meanwhile now we are seeing vertically stacked ram in regular dimms too, for 512GB sticks. once again increasing the multipliers of how many ram chips go into servers. https://www.techpowerup.com/352730/micron-develops-512-gb-ddr5-rdimm-server-memory-reaching-9200-mt-s https://www.techpowerup.com/352730/micron-develops-512-gb-dd...
- pseudohadamard 8d ago
  They've indicated that they're not doing HBM. Maybe due to process constraints, maybe because Chinese companies can look beyond the next quarter and see that if in five years time they own 70% of the non-HBM market the current incumbents are never going to get that back.

rdedev 9d ago

This is probably my ignorance but why are we assuming that CXMT capacity will also not be gobbled up for datacenters?

quux0r 9d ago
If I'm not mistaken I believe that CXMT's fabrication process is not suitable for manufacturing within the super tight tolerances that are needed for data center HBM, but I may be mis remembering. I think I recall a chart from somewhere showing that frontier memory manufacturers could achieve something like double the memory throughput for example.
- jauntywundrkind 9d ago
  allegedly the yields are not great https://www.techpowerup.com/352511/cxmt-reportedly-struggles-with-hbm3e-yields-are-only-25 https://www.techpowerup.com/352511/cxmt-reportedly-struggles... but i feel like this will not last that long and that cxmt will be layering dram for hbm stacks with abandon, like everyone else, uninterested in selling ram to anyone else. meanwhile now we are seeing vertically stacked ram in regular dimms too, for 512GB sticks. once again increasing the multipliers of how many ram chips go into servers. https://www.techpowerup.com/352730/micron-develops-512-gb-ddr5-rdimm-server-memory-reaching-9200-mt-s https://www.techpowerup.com/352730/micron-develops-512-gb-dd...
pseudohadamard 8d ago
They've indicated that they're not doing HBM. Maybe due to process constraints, maybe because Chinese companies can look beyond the next quarter and see that if in five years time they own 70% of the non-HBM market the current incumbents are never going to get that back.