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This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration. While that makes sense, my prediction is that in the short-term it wo

by jmyeet 15d ago

This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration. While that makes sense, my prediction is that in the short-term it won't amount to much. In the long-term, history books will write about these years as redefining the world order that's existed largely since 1945. As for Canada, nobody really knows what associate membership means. Given that EU freedoms are reciprocal I just don't see this going anywhere. Plus there's been a free trade deal with the EU on the table for a decade that hasn't been ratified. As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy. And of course the big winner in all of this is China who have had to do absolutely nothing. Empires don't die overnight and they die violently. This is going to be bad but I honestly see no way the US can restore its position as the global hegemon. It's influence has peaked. And I don't believe anything will reverse that. So I don't know what this means for Australia. It has operated essentially as an American colonial outpost since the Cold War. The geography was once much more important to cover the sky for receiving satellite communications. Selling raw resources is ultimately untenable for an economy (IMHO) but Australia has gone down the path of turning the entire economy into a massive Ponzi scheme of housing, like almost every other developed nation. When housing is the only logical investment, it dominates capital and lending and productive output falls off a cliff, which is exactly what happened.

YZF 15d ago
We shall see. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine way predates the recent wars in the middle east. It's more like the inability to restrain Russia's aspirations in Ukraine have led to instability in the rest of the world. More generally the failure to sustain a more free and democratic Russia or China is perhaps the source of all the other instabilities which all involve political, military and financial support from the China/Russia axis. I wouldn't write off the US quite yet but it's definitely more of a multi-polar world with the US and China the major powers vs. the brief single polar world that followed the fall of the USSR. Arguably the quietest and most prosperous period ever, the largest number of people worldwide rising up from poverty etc. We're gonna miss it.
- jmyeet 15d ago
  By the summer of 2023 when Ukraine's big counteroffensive had failed my own view was that the situation was stalemated and Russia will wait until the West gets bored or the situation changes and Russia's geopolitical position improves. Russia has that option available to it in a way the West doesn't. Sanctions in general don't work. They don't work against enemies. Arguably they only work against allies (eg apartheid South Africa). Sanctions were never going to work against Russia and Russia has more manpower to throw at the meat grinder than Ukraine does. And that changing situation has come to Putin with the Iran War. The US has lost. It has been strategically and militarily defeated by a lesser regional power. It's just a matter of time before it accepts this loss. Because of attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia has changed from a net diesel exporter to banning diesel exports and arguably being a diesel importer. That's a big problem that we're all about to learn. China too has banned the export of refined petroleum products (including diesel) for months now. Diesel prices are about to go way up and the US is now considering a ban on diesel exports. All this "energy nationalism" is going to torch Europe, Asian economies and South America. Just you wait. By foolishly attacking Iran, Trump has made Russia's position much stronger. So yes, the Ukraine war predates the Iran war but the Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia. That's the point.
  - marcus_holmes 15d ago
    Putin has the same choices Trump had: face the music or start a new song. Trump was under pressure about the Epstein files, so he started a war. So far, so normal. It's what politicians do. He thought it would be a simple war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Cuba. Putin was under pressure, so started the Ukraine war. Again, he though it would be a simple quick war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Poland. I'm coming to agree with the folks who think Europe has to actually do more than fight the proxy war in Ukraine. It has to actually hurt Russia for this to resolve. Putin cannot recognise his loss any more than Trump can, so he's just going to continue hurting people.
  - MentalM 15d ago
    > Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia I think that from a geopolitical perspective it is far more advantageous to let Ukraine lose the war, than to allow a situation in which, in 20 years, Muslims will destroy the world with nuclear weapon.
bawolff 15d ago
This hardly seems knee-jerk. Relations with USA has been deteriorating for a while now. At this point, i think most people no longer view this as a trump related fluke but the bew status quo, which is why canada is scrambling for alternatives. > As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy. I couldn't disagree more. The cornerstone of American foreign policy in the middle east has been based around Israel for decades now. Despite how much they all hate each other, if the gulf monarchies see USA withdrawing from Israel, they are likely to worry they might be next. That's not to say i think USA is being smart about the war - they clearly went in half-cocked without a plan or objectives. However totally ignoring the situation would have likely drawn the region into China's hands too. I'm not sure how you are connecting the war in iran to the middle east. Increased oil prices? The link seems tenous.
- jmyeet 15d ago
  Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe. Australia can sell raw materials anywhere but the Red Sea being closed makes it take longer and be more expensive and who is really going to demand raw materials in Europe when the energy crunch hits? And we're bouldering towards that energy crunch (both natural gas and diesel). One of Australia's biggest competitive advantages in selling raw materials to China has always been relative proximity. Lower shipping times and costs. Yes, the US has used Israel as a weapon in the Middle East (since ~1967) but what kept Gulf powers in line was the supply of weapons (to prop up unpopular regimes) and the free flow of trade. This war has shown that the US cannot defend its own bases in the Gulf let alone any of its client states (sorry, "allies"). I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been. The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now. So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era). The quagmire of Afghanistan was a huge factor in the collapse and breakup of the USSR. This isn't like Vietnam, which we could simply walk away from. Iran won and the Israeli state in its current form is doomed.
swat535 14d ago
> This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration. As a Canadian, I can promise you that this not a "knee jerk reaction". Replacing TRUMP with a democrat isn't going to solve it. Canadians have realized that relying on United States is a national security risk, hence the government been building larger trader alliances with both EU and China. Any American thinking that this is just a TRUMP thing is missing the forest for the trees.

by jmyeet 15d ago

YZF 15d ago

We shall see. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine way predates the recent wars in the middle east. It's more like the inability to restrain Russia's aspirations in Ukraine have led to instability in the rest of the world. More generally the failure to sustain a more free and democratic Russia or China is perhaps the source of all the other instabilities which all involve political, military and financial support from the China/Russia axis. I wouldn't write off the US quite yet but it's definitely more of a multi-polar world with the US and China the major powers vs. the brief single polar world that followed the fall of the USSR. Arguably the quietest and most prosperous period ever, the largest number of people worldwide rising up from poverty etc. We're gonna miss it.

jmyeet 15d ago
By the summer of 2023 when Ukraine's big counteroffensive had failed my own view was that the situation was stalemated and Russia will wait until the West gets bored or the situation changes and Russia's geopolitical position improves. Russia has that option available to it in a way the West doesn't. Sanctions in general don't work. They don't work against enemies. Arguably they only work against allies (eg apartheid South Africa). Sanctions were never going to work against Russia and Russia has more manpower to throw at the meat grinder than Ukraine does. And that changing situation has come to Putin with the Iran War. The US has lost. It has been strategically and militarily defeated by a lesser regional power. It's just a matter of time before it accepts this loss. Because of attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia has changed from a net diesel exporter to banning diesel exports and arguably being a diesel importer. That's a big problem that we're all about to learn. China too has banned the export of refined petroleum products (including diesel) for months now. Diesel prices are about to go way up and the US is now considering a ban on diesel exports. All this "energy nationalism" is going to torch Europe, Asian economies and South America. Just you wait. By foolishly attacking Iran, Trump has made Russia's position much stronger. So yes, the Ukraine war predates the Iran war but the Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia. That's the point.
- marcus_holmes 15d ago
  Putin has the same choices Trump had: face the music or start a new song. Trump was under pressure about the Epstein files, so he started a war. So far, so normal. It's what politicians do. He thought it would be a simple war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Cuba. Putin was under pressure, so started the Ukraine war. Again, he though it would be a simple quick war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Poland. I'm coming to agree with the folks who think Europe has to actually do more than fight the proxy war in Ukraine. It has to actually hurt Russia for this to resolve. Putin cannot recognise his loss any more than Trump can, so he's just going to continue hurting people.
- MentalM 15d ago
  > Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia I think that from a geopolitical perspective it is far more advantageous to let Ukraine lose the war, than to allow a situation in which, in 20 years, Muslims will destroy the world with nuclear weapon.

bawolff 15d ago

This hardly seems knee-jerk. Relations with USA has been deteriorating for a while now. At this point, i think most people no longer view this as a trump related fluke but the bew status quo, which is why canada is scrambling for alternatives. > As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy. I couldn't disagree more. The cornerstone of American foreign policy in the middle east has been based around Israel for decades now. Despite how much they all hate each other, if the gulf monarchies see USA withdrawing from Israel, they are likely to worry they might be next. That's not to say i think USA is being smart about the war - they clearly went in half-cocked without a plan or objectives. However totally ignoring the situation would have likely drawn the region into China's hands too. I'm not sure how you are connecting the war in iran to the middle east. Increased oil prices? The link seems tenous.

jmyeet 15d ago
Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe. Australia can sell raw materials anywhere but the Red Sea being closed makes it take longer and be more expensive and who is really going to demand raw materials in Europe when the energy crunch hits? And we're bouldering towards that energy crunch (both natural gas and diesel). One of Australia's biggest competitive advantages in selling raw materials to China has always been relative proximity. Lower shipping times and costs. Yes, the US has used Israel as a weapon in the Middle East (since ~1967) but what kept Gulf powers in line was the supply of weapons (to prop up unpopular regimes) and the free flow of trade. This war has shown that the US cannot defend its own bases in the Gulf let alone any of its client states (sorry, "allies"). I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been. The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now. So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era). The quagmire of Afghanistan was a huge factor in the collapse and breakup of the USSR. This isn't like Vietnam, which we could simply walk away from. Iran won and the Israeli state in its current form is doomed.

swat535 14d ago

> This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration. As a Canadian, I can promise you that this not a "knee jerk reaction". Replacing TRUMP with a democrat isn't going to solve it. Canadians have realized that relying on United States is a national security risk, hence the government been building larger trader alliances with both EU and China. Any American thinking that this is just a TRUMP thing is missing the forest for the trees.