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I think the fear is that softwaring engineering becomes a low-skill profession. If the models get good enough you won't need years of experience to be a decent

I think the fear is that softwaring engineering becomes a low-skill profession. If the models get good enough you won't need years of experience to be a decent programmer.

reedlaw 17d ago
Expectations around software quality will rise in tandem with gains in productivity so that the same experience curve continues to apply.
- poncho_romero 17d ago
  I don't think that's been true over the last decade though.
zffr 17d ago
IMO the fear is that software engineering becomes a _high_-skill profession. If the models get good enough to solve all of the low-skill problems, then we only need to keep around the people who are highly skilled. That means a fewer number of software engineers, and a difficult path to becoming someone who is highly skilled.
- entropicdrifter 17d ago
  It's already a fairly high skill profession in general. The seemingly-lower-skilled roles tend to be the ones with higher design/creative requirements on the programmers. Agreed about the barrier to entry raising though, we're already seeing that in the glut of CS grads who can't actually get a programming job right now. Personally I suspect that this is a cultural issue more than an economic one, though. Companies need to alter their expectation about entry-level engineers and develop a culture of mentorship/apprenticeship so that advanced analysis, architectural, code review, and AI management skills are all passed down successfully.
  - devonkim 16d ago
    Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I believe I'd disagree with your first point on the perceived lower skill roles with higher design / creative requirements. I've seen a lot of the software industry being software factories rather than something closer to craftsmanship or even proper ABET-style engineering and AI is indeed better than the manually written slop that was encouraged in low-creativity / low-innovation environments such as QA and a lot of infrastructure engineering like defining CI pipelines. It seems reminiscent of the waves that hit industries like coal mining and manufacturing in the US except at a much faster rate and with different driving and resisting forces in automation. Programmer / engineer compensation in the US market at least has been looking bimodal for at least 12 years now and the first one looks even more devastated in terms of labor than the big tech companies based upon (lack of) job postings and from browsing my connections on LinkedIn.
vanuatu 17d ago
I think its the opposite, the grunt work is done by AI, the remaining skills are difficult to acquire and software engineers command a higher premium (but there may be less software engineers in aggregate)

I think the fear is that softwaring engineering becomes a low-skill profession. If the models get good enough you won't need years of experience to be a decent programmer.

reedlaw 17d ago

Expectations around software quality will rise in tandem with gains in productivity so that the same experience curve continues to apply.

poncho_romero 17d ago
I don't think that's been true over the last decade though.

zffr 17d ago

IMO the fear is that software engineering becomes a _high_-skill profession. If the models get good enough to solve all of the low-skill problems, then we only need to keep around the people who are highly skilled. That means a fewer number of software engineers, and a difficult path to becoming someone who is highly skilled.

entropicdrifter 17d ago
It's already a fairly high skill profession in general. The seemingly-lower-skilled roles tend to be the ones with higher design/creative requirements on the programmers. Agreed about the barrier to entry raising though, we're already seeing that in the glut of CS grads who can't actually get a programming job right now. Personally I suspect that this is a cultural issue more than an economic one, though. Companies need to alter their expectation about entry-level engineers and develop a culture of mentorship/apprenticeship so that advanced analysis, architectural, code review, and AI management skills are all passed down successfully.
- devonkim 16d ago
  Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but I believe I'd disagree with your first point on the perceived lower skill roles with higher design / creative requirements. I've seen a lot of the software industry being software factories rather than something closer to craftsmanship or even proper ABET-style engineering and AI is indeed better than the manually written slop that was encouraged in low-creativity / low-innovation environments such as QA and a lot of infrastructure engineering like defining CI pipelines. It seems reminiscent of the waves that hit industries like coal mining and manufacturing in the US except at a much faster rate and with different driving and resisting forces in automation. Programmer / engineer compensation in the US market at least has been looking bimodal for at least 12 years now and the first one looks even more devastated in terms of labor than the big tech companies based upon (lack of) job postings and from browsing my connections on LinkedIn.

vanuatu 17d ago

I think its the opposite, the grunt work is done by AI, the remaining skills are difficult to acquire and software engineers command a higher premium (but there may be less software engineers in aggregate)