I think the harnesses might get better. And the alignment and pre training. But I don’t think the LLMs will get much better… I don’t have any sources for that t

I think the harnesses might get better. And the alignment and pre training. But I don’t think the LLMs will get much better… I don’t have any sources for that though. Just napkin math. At the end of the day, even if it gets to 99.9999% reliably generate what an experienced programmer would expect… you still need to be an experienced programmer to know what to want and how to specify it. I think the experience, institutional knowledge, and process knowledge are never going to be replaceable. You’ll still need to learn what a cache miss is and how the heap works and when to use skip lists and all that. Otherwise you will just generate slop. An AI system is not able to replace a human.