4 ms·

A.I.'S Effect on the Work Force Is Showing Up in Wages

3 points by marojejian 17d ago

marojejian 17d ago
Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/ai-raises-hiring.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BlE.JV34.XMs7Gb-SYVyn&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/ai-raises-hiring... >Liminal Capital, an investment firm, estimated in August that about a third of jobs appear to be more exposed to substitution than augmentation by A.I. In those occupations, new hires among workers ages 22 to 25 have fallen by a third since 2021, even as firings have barely budged. Their paper: https://www.liminal-capital.com/documents/liminal-ai-jobs-impact.pdf https://www.liminal-capital.com/documents/liminal-ai-jobs-im... I'm skeptical of the quality/bias of this, given the source. That said, the story makes sense to me at a high level. Even without the current ML expansion, general trends in automation and maturity & consolidation of the tech sector seemed to be generating a similar effect.
- curuinor 17d ago
  My whisper network has talked about cutting junior hires in computer-touching 60, 70, 80%
  - greymalik 17d ago
    Where do they plan to get new seniors from when the current crop retires?
toomuchtodo 17d ago
Nah, employers are holding wages down due to interest rates and the cost of money. AI is the excuse. Workers have no bargaining power for higher wages without a union, so they are powerless to demand higher wages unless they are in a unique situation. Same reason productivity is going up, rolling layoffs requiring those who remain to do more with less, which increases productivity metrics. Short term profits are being prioritized over on boarding, developing, and training fresh/junior folks. Michigan Insurance Giant Blames "AI" for Layoffs–But Evidence Points Overseas - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49365161 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49365161 - August 2026 > My investigation points to a far more conventional explanation: Acrisure is shifting work once performed by American employees to lower-cost operations in India, the Philippines, and Colombia. What's Liminal Capital's portfolio look like? I would like to see if they're talking their book versus objective productivity data.
- verdverm 17d ago
  Interest rates are not that high, once you move beyond this century's period of near-zero rates which was never sustainable
  - toomuchtodo 17d ago
    Interest rates are high by recent historical standards. Something does not need to be sustainable for the transition to be painful. FRED: Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds How Did Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Affect Software Developer Jobs? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49730161 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49730161 - September 2026 What the The end of 0% interest rates means for software engineers - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39193331 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39193331 - January 2024 (169 comments)
    - verdverm 17d ago
      that's exactly the point I'm making, recency bias, it contorts our perceptions
      - toomuchtodo 17d ago
        Is your thesis that interest rates have no relation to job openings and hiring?
        verdverm 17d ago
        I'm simply talking about a number, an adjective you placed with it, and the historical data that would indicate a different adjective is more appropriate The Fed seems to think the rates are likely lower than they need to be, given the broader market dynamics. Rates interplay with both spending and inflation, inflation being above the long-term target the Fed set. When that is the circumstance, the Fed typically raise rates to reduce inflation.

3 points by marojejian 17d ago

Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/ai-raises-hiring.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BlE.JV34.XMs7Gb-SYVyn&smid=url-share https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/business/ai-raises-hiring... >Liminal Capital, an investment firm, estimated in August that about a third of jobs appear to be more exposed to substitution than augmentation by A.I. In those occupations, new hires among workers ages 22 to 25 have fallen by a third since 2021, even as firings have barely budged. Their paper: https://www.liminal-capital.com/documents/liminal-ai-jobs-impact.pdf https://www.liminal-capital.com/documents/liminal-ai-jobs-im... I'm skeptical of the quality/bias of this, given the source. That said, the story makes sense to me at a high level. Even without the current ML expansion, general trends in automation and maturity & consolidation of the tech sector seemed to be generating a similar effect.

curuinor 17d ago
My whisper network has talked about cutting junior hires in computer-touching 60, 70, 80%
- greymalik 17d ago
  Where do they plan to get new seniors from when the current crop retires?

toomuchtodo 17d ago

Nah, employers are holding wages down due to interest rates and the cost of money. AI is the excuse. Workers have no bargaining power for higher wages without a union, so they are powerless to demand higher wages unless they are in a unique situation. Same reason productivity is going up, rolling layoffs requiring those who remain to do more with less, which increases productivity metrics. Short term profits are being prioritized over on boarding, developing, and training fresh/junior folks. Michigan Insurance Giant Blames "AI" for Layoffs–But Evidence Points Overseas - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49365161 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49365161 - August 2026 > My investigation points to a far more conventional explanation: Acrisure is shifting work once performed by American employees to lower-cost operations in India, the Philippines, and Colombia. What's Liminal Capital's portfolio look like? I would like to see if they're talking their book versus objective productivity data.

verdverm 17d ago
Interest rates are not that high, once you move beyond this century's period of near-zero rates which was never sustainable
- toomuchtodo 17d ago
  Interest rates are high by recent historical standards. Something does not need to be sustainable for the transition to be painful. FRED: Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds How Did Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Affect Software Developer Jobs? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49730161 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49730161 - September 2026 What the The end of 0% interest rates means for software engineers - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39193331 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39193331 - January 2024 (169 comments)
  - verdverm 17d ago
    that's exactly the point I'm making, recency bias, it contorts our perceptions
    - toomuchtodo 17d ago
      Is your thesis that interest rates have no relation to job openings and hiring?
      - verdverm 17d ago
        I'm simply talking about a number, an adjective you placed with it, and the historical data that would indicate a different adjective is more appropriate The Fed seems to think the rates are likely lower than they need to be, given the broader market dynamics. Rates interplay with both spending and inflation, inflation being above the long-term target the Fed set. When that is the circumstance, the Fed typically raise rates to reduce inflation.