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Disagree, they need a lot of capital in the next couple years, and the more revenue they have today, the more data centers they can start building. Also invest

by theptip 15d ago

Disagree, they need a lot of capital in the next couple years, and the more revenue they have today, the more data centers they can start building. Also investors (particularly non-AGI-pilled) want to see revenue number go up, regardless of AGI. This juices the IPO.

grey-area 15d ago
If they need capital in the short term and were anywhere close to AGI, they could easily generate it, by spinning up their incredibly capable and intelligent agents to generate capital through doing useful work. They could also fire entire departments within their own org and replace them with agents, if they had something close to AGI. Instead they are selling a dream to the gullible, and advertisements to go along with that dream.
- theptip 15d ago
  What you describe is IMO “fully obtained AGI”, what I’m arguing for is consistent with “< 5 years to AGI” which I deem “close”. That said AGI is a fuzzy term and you’ll model the world poorly if you treat it as a binary state.
  - grey-area 15d ago
    Prominent figures in OpenAI have claimed they have already attained AGI. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-latest-model-says-it-marks-the-beginning-of-the-agi-era/ar-AA2bwhMf https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-lat... "OpenAI released its latest model, GPT-6 Astra, on Thursday, with company President Greg Brockman calling it the beginning of the artificial general intelligence (AGI) era." But they're still peddling ads instead of improving the world. How odd.
    - theptip 15d ago
      Sure, they claimed it, that doesn’t affect my world model above.
- ffsm8 15d ago
  while i suspect youre right, this cannot be concluded with the information we have as of today. eg its also possible that theyre either close to AGI (or even beyond it) - and its just too expensive to run at scale, making it a novelty from the perspective of profitability for the near to medium future. you could argue that they could still do it for some positions -- but even that depends on just how expensive this theoretical model is.

by theptip 15d ago

grey-area 15d ago

If they need capital in the short term and were anywhere close to AGI, they could easily generate it, by spinning up their incredibly capable and intelligent agents to generate capital through doing useful work. They could also fire entire departments within their own org and replace them with agents, if they had something close to AGI. Instead they are selling a dream to the gullible, and advertisements to go along with that dream.

theptip 15d ago
What you describe is IMO “fully obtained AGI”, what I’m arguing for is consistent with “< 5 years to AGI” which I deem “close”. That said AGI is a fuzzy term and you’ll model the world poorly if you treat it as a binary state.
- grey-area 15d ago
  Prominent figures in OpenAI have claimed they have already attained AGI. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-latest-model-says-it-marks-the-beginning-of-the-agi-era/ar-AA2bwhMf https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/openai-releases-its-lat... "OpenAI released its latest model, GPT-6 Astra, on Thursday, with company President Greg Brockman calling it the beginning of the artificial general intelligence (AGI) era." But they're still peddling ads instead of improving the world. How odd.
  - theptip 15d ago
    Sure, they claimed it, that doesn’t affect my world model above.
ffsm8 15d ago
while i suspect youre right, this cannot be concluded with the information we have as of today. eg its also possible that theyre either close to AGI (or even beyond it) - and its just too expensive to run at scale, making it a novelty from the perspective of profitability for the near to medium future. you could argue that they could still do it for some positions -- but even that depends on just how expensive this theoretical model is.