A lot of successful startups start out with good ideas and atrocious, unmaintainable code. Current LLMs kind of let you speedrun that. Dutifully slapping more a

A lot of successful startups start out with good ideas and atrocious, unmaintainable code. Current LLMs kind of let you speedrun that. Dutifully slapping more and more mud onto their week-old ball of mud. The sacred, canonical ball of mud they must faithfully preserve at all costs. But the product will probably work decently enough. And as long as the humans are sufficiently devoted to testing and nitpicking and improving the product design and UX choices made by the LLM, they can get away with not caring much about its system design. Also, by the time the code really needs to be rewritten (1 - 3 years), the latest models will probably be noticeably less bad at this. Humans who are persistent enough in their attempts to tip the model away from these basins already see at least some success. Combined with other general improvements, model companies will probably find ways to do more post-training on not just "can it complete all of these isolated coding tasks with a 100% pass rate" but "can it consistently inhabit a mindset that values the art of elegant code and simple, clean architecture as an intrinsic goal over a very long time horizon". Perhaps in a way where a harness instruction can make the model especially tap into that mode. You're right that even in years from now an experienced programmer will get better results with an LLM than a non-programmer will, but I think with each passing year that gap will slowly shrink. Learning programming will always only ever help, but if the non-programmer actually has sufficiently good ideas that they want to start working on immediately, it probably actually is a better use of their time to make the initial version before knowing anything about software development and then to teach themselves (real) software development as they continue working on things. I think this would be the case even if LLMs never got any better than they are today, and I think they're almost definitely going to get way better at programming than they are today.