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But does that matter? If the goal for buyers of AI is “replace this knowledge worker”, how much does it matter that the model in a simple loop can’t do it, but

But does that matter? If the goal for buyers of AI is “replace this knowledge worker”, how much does it matter that the model in a simple loop can’t do it, but the model with a strong general purpose harness and a little time to gather resources and knowledge to augment the harness going forward, plus tool calls, plus custom built tools, etc, can replace the knowledge worker? Probably the only thing saving many jobs from being replaced right now is that it’s hard to have a verification of correctness in the loop, so the agent can’t hill climb very easily.

numitus 10d ago
Tests are often conducted under restricted conditions. For example, elementary school students aren't given calculators in math class, or during an interview, you are asked what encapsulation is and aren't allowed to use Google. The chess test effectively demonstrates the reasoning capabilities of an LLM without relying on brute force, because a human is incapable of calculating trillions of combinations yet plays chess successfully. This test is necessary because many complex problems cannot be solved by brute force, such as managing a business or playing Heroes 3. Therefore, we can make the assumption that if an LLM can play chess at a grandmaster level without brute force, it means it will be able to command an army or manage production.
- senordevnyc 10d ago
  People might care about this for chess, but no one really cares if an LLM can command an army or manage production of a business without any tools. If it can do those tasks reliably when given access to tools (including any tools it autonomously creates for itself), then that's more than sufficient. No one cares if an LLM is doing reasoning the way humans do it, as long as it can get the job done.
  - numitus 9d ago
    The assumption is that if an LLM is incapable of playing chess—a game with a relatively small number of pieces, clear and simple rules, and perfect information—even after reading a hundred thousand books on chess, then it is fundamentally incapable of managing an army or a factory. This is because those scenarios involve more 'pieces,' incomplete and fuzzy information, and implicit rules that need to be deduced independently. It doesn't matter whether it has tools or not. It's simply that running tests with chess is cheap, whereas testing with an army or writing a browser from scratch is quite time-consuming and expensive.

numitus 10d ago

Tests are often conducted under restricted conditions. For example, elementary school students aren't given calculators in math class, or during an interview, you are asked what encapsulation is and aren't allowed to use Google. The chess test effectively demonstrates the reasoning capabilities of an LLM without relying on brute force, because a human is incapable of calculating trillions of combinations yet plays chess successfully. This test is necessary because many complex problems cannot be solved by brute force, such as managing a business or playing Heroes 3. Therefore, we can make the assumption that if an LLM can play chess at a grandmaster level without brute force, it means it will be able to command an army or manage production.

senordevnyc 10d ago
People might care about this for chess, but no one really cares if an LLM can command an army or manage production of a business without any tools. If it can do those tasks reliably when given access to tools (including any tools it autonomously creates for itself), then that's more than sufficient. No one cares if an LLM is doing reasoning the way humans do it, as long as it can get the job done.
- numitus 9d ago
  The assumption is that if an LLM is incapable of playing chess—a game with a relatively small number of pieces, clear and simple rules, and perfect information—even after reading a hundred thousand books on chess, then it is fundamentally incapable of managing an army or a factory. This is because those scenarios involve more 'pieces,' incomplete and fuzzy information, and implicit rules that need to be deduced independently. It doesn't matter whether it has tools or not. It's simply that running tests with chess is cheap, whereas testing with an army or writing a browser from scratch is quite time-consuming and expensive.