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I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland eventually leaves UK and joins the EU. Part of the reason they voted to stay in the UK was so that they could remain in the

by ChrisRR 10d ago

I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland eventually leaves UK and joins the EU. Part of the reason they voted to stay in the UK was so that they could remain in the EU, and then brexit happened

gizajob 10d ago
That can’t happen though because they’d be without a currency in the interim period and it’s also baked in to the EU’s treaties to make this difficult else places like Catalonia and the Basque Country would break away and join the EU, so there are barriers in place to make this less than quick or easy.
- jeroenhd 10d ago
  It would be rather foolish, but they can continue using the GBP. Or they can start using the Euro before joining. They wouldn't be able to mint their currency, but plenty of small (often island) nations use foreign currency already. Scotland is already a separate country, technically speaking, so I don't think it's comparable with the Basque situation. Furthermore, with the UK leaving the EU, they've opened doors that non-EU members can't use to work around such issues. I don't think it'll happen soon, but the desire for independence does seem to be there to a significant extent already: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/13/irish-scots-and-welsh-leaders-meet-to-plot-break-up-uk/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_tw_post_to-plot-break-up-uk/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/13/irish-scots-... The largest problem for an independent Scotland trying to join the EU would probably be that the EU doesn't just let anyone join. You need to have a strong enough economy and a grip on national debt to join.
  - gizajob 10d ago
    I think if you keep researching one of the things that killed the referendum last time was the British government saying a hard no to continued use of the pound while scotland applied to the EU and joined the Euro. Now of course they could keep using the pound, but the amount of economic attacks against Scotland by the City of London and general lack of financial independence seems like it really would kill the idea dead. If Scotland thinks it gets a better deal from the EU than it gets as part of being in the UK then it should go for it but it would be an extremely expensive and fragile 10-15 years in that interim period. And not even full independence, it would be tantamount to saying “we hate the English so much we’d rather be governed from Belgium”.
    - graemep 10d ago
      IIRC it was not a refusal to allow Scotland to use the pound but to give a Scotland a say in setting interest rates, and even that was not a hard no because terms had not been agreed
- rsynnott 10d ago
  > because they’d be without a currency in the interim period From independence 1922 to 1979 (when we joined the EMS) Ireland just used a currency pegged to Sterling. An independent Scotland would presumably use a newly-created currency pegged to either Sterling or the Euro, on at least a temporary basis. Spain have dropped their threats to veto Scottish accession: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops...
  - gizajob 10d ago
    You really think contemporary Scots are going to be alright with that? If we’re saying that Brexit has been economically disastrous for Britain then it seems exiting the UK could be even worse. I’d support the Scots doing it though if they manage to vote for it in a third referendum.
    - rsynnott 10d ago
      I mean, if pegged against Sterling, they'd be about where they are now; Scotland has no meaningful control over Sterling currently.
graemep 10d ago
They would then have a hard border with England, and would have to untangle their economy from the UK to some extent, which would be extremely disruptive. There will also be complex issues around who gets which citizenship, who would need work visas, a change of currency, etc. It was known that there was likely to be a Brexit referendum at the time of the Scottish referendum: Cameron had promised one if the Conservatives won the 2015 election.

by ChrisRR 10d ago

I wouldn't be surprised if Scotland eventually leaves UK and joins the EU. Part of the reason they voted to stay in the UK was so that they could remain in the EU, and then brexit happened

gizajob 10d ago

That can’t happen though because they’d be without a currency in the interim period and it’s also baked in to the EU’s treaties to make this difficult else places like Catalonia and the Basque Country would break away and join the EU, so there are barriers in place to make this less than quick or easy.

jeroenhd 10d ago
It would be rather foolish, but they can continue using the GBP. Or they can start using the Euro before joining. They wouldn't be able to mint their currency, but plenty of small (often island) nations use foreign currency already. Scotland is already a separate country, technically speaking, so I don't think it's comparable with the Basque situation. Furthermore, with the UK leaving the EU, they've opened doors that non-EU members can't use to work around such issues. I don't think it'll happen soon, but the desire for independence does seem to be there to a significant extent already: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/13/irish-scots-and-welsh-leaders-meet-to-plot-break-up-uk/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_tw_post_to-plot-break-up-uk/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/13/irish-scots-... The largest problem for an independent Scotland trying to join the EU would probably be that the EU doesn't just let anyone join. You need to have a strong enough economy and a grip on national debt to join.
- gizajob 10d ago
  I think if you keep researching one of the things that killed the referendum last time was the British government saying a hard no to continued use of the pound while scotland applied to the EU and joined the Euro. Now of course they could keep using the pound, but the amount of economic attacks against Scotland by the City of London and general lack of financial independence seems like it really would kill the idea dead. If Scotland thinks it gets a better deal from the EU than it gets as part of being in the UK then it should go for it but it would be an extremely expensive and fragile 10-15 years in that interim period. And not even full independence, it would be tantamount to saying “we hate the English so much we’d rather be governed from Belgium”.
  - graemep 10d ago
    IIRC it was not a refusal to allow Scotland to use the pound but to give a Scotland a say in setting interest rates, and even that was not a hard no because terms had not been agreed
rsynnott 10d ago
> because they’d be without a currency in the interim period From independence 1922 to 1979 (when we joined the EMS) Ireland just used a currency pegged to Sterling. An independent Scotland would presumably use a newly-created currency pegged to either Sterling or the Euro, on at least a temporary basis. Spain have dropped their threats to veto Scottish accession: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops-plan-to-impose-veto-if-scotland-tries-to-join-eu https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/02/spain-drops...
- gizajob 10d ago
  You really think contemporary Scots are going to be alright with that? If we’re saying that Brexit has been economically disastrous for Britain then it seems exiting the UK could be even worse. I’d support the Scots doing it though if they manage to vote for it in a third referendum.
  - rsynnott 10d ago
    I mean, if pegged against Sterling, they'd be about where they are now; Scotland has no meaningful control over Sterling currently.

graemep 10d ago

They would then have a hard border with England, and would have to untangle their economy from the UK to some extent, which would be extremely disruptive. There will also be complex issues around who gets which citizenship, who would need work visas, a change of currency, etc. It was known that there was likely to be a Brexit referendum at the time of the Scottish referendum: Cameron had promised one if the Conservatives won the 2015 election.