4 ms·

What I find interesting is that while the actions of the US have been incredibly foolish and poorly thought through, Iran’s ability to make things hurt is very

What I find interesting is that while the actions of the US have been incredibly foolish and poorly thought through, Iran’s ability to make things hurt is very much a sword that cuts both ways. There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate. Americans have proven passive enough that I don’t expect political/military change unless the democrats pull their head out of their ass long enough to win the 2026 November elections and start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime.

foobiekr 17d ago
It will take _many_ years for alternatives to come online in the US and most other places. So much of the west is unable to execute on any kind of large project. In addition, in the US, the current administration has an irrational opposition to the main cost-effective alternatives.
- mysterydip 17d ago
  It doesn’t seem irrational if their friends/family/donors have investments in the incumbent energy systems.
- onlypassingthru 17d ago
  What if I told you that manipulating the oil futures market was a foolproof way to make themselves filthy rich? Would you still think that opposition was irrational?
Buttons840 17d ago
The world moving away from oil weakens America too. It's not like the US is a leading producer of solar panels or EVs.
edfsadfer 17d ago
"There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate." I am old enough to have lived through the oil shocks in New Zealand. It got so bad the government rolled out an alternative fuel system network of compressed natural gas. Many fuel stations had installed the tanks and pumps and many cars were converted to it. NZ has gas deposits enough to meet all its own demands. As soon as the oil shock was over it was all ripped out and we all went back to oil.
palmotea 17d ago
> ...unless the democrats ... start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime. Because that worked so well last time. Time for some new ideas.
throwaway920333 17d ago
It's not that poorly thought out if you look at it from the right perspective. Iran is the biggest enemy of Israel, and Iran has been significantly weakened. Israel was wiling to roll the dice on regime change in Iran as long as someone else was doing most of the fighting. The U.S. was a power in decline before the Iran war, and the U.S. population was turning against Israel anyhow, so it made sense to get America to give it one last hurrah before they became useless to Israel.
- geoka9 16d ago
  > Israel was wiling to roll the dice on regime change in Iran Why would they want to change the regime in Iran? If the goal is to hold on to power in Israel.

foobiekr 17d ago

It will take _many_ years for alternatives to come online in the US and most other places. So much of the west is unable to execute on any kind of large project. In addition, in the US, the current administration has an irrational opposition to the main cost-effective alternatives.

mysterydip 17d ago
It doesn’t seem irrational if their friends/family/donors have investments in the incumbent energy systems.
onlypassingthru 17d ago
What if I told you that manipulating the oil futures market was a foolproof way to make themselves filthy rich? Would you still think that opposition was irrational?

Buttons840 17d ago

The world moving away from oil weakens America too. It's not like the US is a leading producer of solar panels or EVs.

edfsadfer 17d ago

"There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate." I am old enough to have lived through the oil shocks in New Zealand. It got so bad the government rolled out an alternative fuel system network of compressed natural gas. Many fuel stations had installed the tanks and pumps and many cars were converted to it. NZ has gas deposits enough to meet all its own demands. As soon as the oil shock was over it was all ripped out and we all went back to oil.

palmotea 17d ago

> ...unless the democrats ... start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime. Because that worked so well last time. Time for some new ideas.

throwaway920333 17d ago

It's not that poorly thought out if you look at it from the right perspective. Iran is the biggest enemy of Israel, and Iran has been significantly weakened. Israel was wiling to roll the dice on regime change in Iran as long as someone else was doing most of the fighting. The U.S. was a power in decline before the Iran war, and the U.S. population was turning against Israel anyhow, so it made sense to get America to give it one last hurrah before they became useless to Israel.

geoka9 16d ago
> Israel was wiling to roll the dice on regime change in Iran Why would they want to change the regime in Iran? If the goal is to hold on to power in Israel.