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Iran has continued to fire at tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. Navy escort, and apparently the U.S. can't afford to do anything about it. The Ba

Iran has continued to fire at tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. Navy escort, and apparently the U.S. can't afford to do anything about it. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is an alternative route used by the Saudis, is being closed by the Houthis. The Houthis are a close partner of Iran. And the East-West pipeline, which was another alternative route owned by the Saudis, was blown up. They went for the pumping stations, so repairing it will take at least a month, and there is no way to repair it without it possibly being hit again anyway. The oil infrastructure attacks by Ukraine are mainly targeting refineries, which would normally lower oil prices, since crude oil is an input to these refineries. These attacks are increasing diesel prices, though. Iran is trying to break the world economy so the US packs up and leaves. Israel wants to keep the US there because the US is fighting one of their strongest enemies. Because Israel "is the US's greatest ally" (as many politicians have proclaimed over the years), they have a lot of sway as to what the US does. Not to mention, they seem to do whatever they can to derail any peace process. Iran knows this, and therefore wants to make sure the US experiences enough pain to never come back and try to fight them again. So, until the US is willing to stop, which rests heavily on when Israel is willing to stop, oil prices will remain high. (Or Iran folds, which they aren't going to do, they've been preparing for years and have seen how the US treated Venezuela - they stole all their oil, and left the regime intact) Also, we've seen nothing yet, as the soft storage (the amount of oil that's normally floating through rhe global network) and the SPR's are all running dry. I would guess $150 oil in about a month.

CoastalCoder 11d ago
Nice summary.
- Modified3019 11d ago
  What I find interesting is that while the actions of the US have been incredibly foolish and poorly thought through, Iran’s ability to make things hurt is very much a sword that cuts both ways. There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate. Americans have proven passive enough that I don’t expect political/military change unless the democrats pull their head out of their ass long enough to win the 2026 November elections and start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime.
  - foobiekr 11d ago
    It will take _many_ years for alternatives to come online in the US and most other places. So much of the west is unable to execute on any kind of large project. In addition, in the US, the current administration has an irrational opposition to the main cost-effective alternatives.
    - mysterydip 11d ago
      It doesn’t seem irrational if their friends/family/donors have investments in the incumbent energy systems.
    - onlypassingthru 10d ago
      What if I told you that manipulating the oil futures market was a foolproof way to make themselves filthy rich? Would you still think that opposition was irrational?
  - Buttons840 11d ago
    The world moving away from oil weakens America too. It's not like the US is a leading producer of solar panels or EVs.
  - edfsadfer 11d ago
    "There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate." I am old enough to have lived through the oil shocks in New Zealand. It got so bad the government rolled out an alternative fuel system network of compressed natural gas. Many fuel stations had installed the tanks and pumps and many cars were converted to it. NZ has gas deposits enough to meet all its own demands. As soon as the oil shock was over it was all ripped out and we all went back to oil.
  - palmotea 10d ago
    > ...unless the democrats ... start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime. Because that worked so well last time. Time for some new ideas.
Buttons840 11d ago
This is the might our 20 trillion dollars spent on military has bought us. A month or two ago they sent out an email asking common military members for ideas to deal with Iran. We've paid think tanks millions of dollars for plans like that. Guess they weren't worth anything in practice though. All that money spent on plans and equipment and it sustains--what?--like 3 weeks of bombing Iranian children? (I mean, we did bomb a children's school on the first day, and nobody has been held accountable, so I'm still bitter about that. Let's be better please.)
- phist_mcgee 11d ago
  This can't be real?
  - Buttons840 11d ago
    It was widely reported starting around August 3, 2026. I just Googled it. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/us-military-iran-war-troops-punish https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/us-military-iran-war...
- tim333 11d ago
  The US has a lot of military hardware but questionable leadership just now. At least they've brought in testosterone tests so the military should look the part.
- notpachet 10d ago
  > Let's be better please. That rhetorical horse left the allegorical barn a long time ago.
- Gud 10d ago
  The "plans" were never used though. This whole affair is conducted by imbeciles.
  - UncleMeat 10d ago
    This is what you get when you hire a TV personality who cares more about soldiers looking masculine (and white) than anything else and launch an illegal war for no reason other than "those guys make me angry." We are governed by people who think the very idea of expertise is dumb. A system of pure id and grievance. Like children playing war in the bath tub.
palmotea 10d ago
> and there is no way to repair it without it possibly being hit again anyway. What if they deploy hordes of those cheap Ukrainian anti-drone interceptors, near each station?
fortzi 9d ago
Israel this Israel that... Not a word about how the US is in this adventure to get a grip on oil and gas shipments to China. This is just another move in the bigger play of curtailing China’s influence. Another’s benefit to the US is that many consumers of Arab oil now has to sign years long contracts to buy oil from the US. But sure, it’s Israel. Edit: see US’s recent moves in the straight of Malaka and Gibraltar.

CoastalCoder 11d ago

Nice summary.

Modified3019 11d ago
What I find interesting is that while the actions of the US have been incredibly foolish and poorly thought through, Iran’s ability to make things hurt is very much a sword that cuts both ways. There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate. Americans have proven passive enough that I don’t expect political/military change unless the democrats pull their head out of their ass long enough to win the 2026 November elections and start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime.
- foobiekr 11d ago
  It will take _many_ years for alternatives to come online in the US and most other places. So much of the west is unable to execute on any kind of large project. In addition, in the US, the current administration has an irrational opposition to the main cost-effective alternatives.
  - mysterydip 11d ago
    It doesn’t seem irrational if their friends/family/donors have investments in the incumbent energy systems.
  - onlypassingthru 10d ago
    What if I told you that manipulating the oil futures market was a foolproof way to make themselves filthy rich? Would you still think that opposition was irrational?
- Buttons840 11d ago
  The world moving away from oil weakens America too. It's not like the US is a leading producer of solar panels or EVs.
- edfsadfer 11d ago
  "There is now very strong incentive to develop alternatives that bypass what Iran can effect, which is exactly what’s happening. It will take a while for the infrastructure to come online, but as the months and eventually years go by, Iran will find its biggest lever for control rapidly diminishing even if the war was stopped now. Likewise, the move to EV’s will likely accelerate." I am old enough to have lived through the oil shocks in New Zealand. It got so bad the government rolled out an alternative fuel system network of compressed natural gas. Many fuel stations had installed the tanks and pumps and many cars were converted to it. NZ has gas deposits enough to meet all its own demands. As soon as the oil shock was over it was all ripped out and we all went back to oil.
- palmotea 10d ago
  > ...unless the democrats ... start impeaching and prosecuting the trump regime. Because that worked so well last time. Time for some new ideas.

Buttons840 11d ago

This is the might our 20 trillion dollars spent on military has bought us. A month or two ago they sent out an email asking common military members for ideas to deal with Iran. We've paid think tanks millions of dollars for plans like that. Guess they weren't worth anything in practice though. All that money spent on plans and equipment and it sustains--what?--like 3 weeks of bombing Iranian children? (I mean, we did bomb a children's school on the first day, and nobody has been held accountable, so I'm still bitter about that. Let's be better please.)

phist_mcgee 11d ago
This can't be real?
- Buttons840 11d ago
  It was widely reported starting around August 3, 2026. I just Googled it. https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/us-military-iran-war-troops-punish https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/us-military-iran-war...
tim333 11d ago
The US has a lot of military hardware but questionable leadership just now. At least they've brought in testosterone tests so the military should look the part.
notpachet 10d ago
> Let's be better please. That rhetorical horse left the allegorical barn a long time ago.
Gud 10d ago
The "plans" were never used though. This whole affair is conducted by imbeciles.
- UncleMeat 10d ago
  This is what you get when you hire a TV personality who cares more about soldiers looking masculine (and white) than anything else and launch an illegal war for no reason other than "those guys make me angry." We are governed by people who think the very idea of expertise is dumb. A system of pure id and grievance. Like children playing war in the bath tub.

palmotea 10d ago

> and there is no way to repair it without it possibly being hit again anyway. What if they deploy hordes of those cheap Ukrainian anti-drone interceptors, near each station?

fortzi 9d ago

Israel this Israel that... Not a word about how the US is in this adventure to get a grip on oil and gas shipments to China. This is just another move in the bigger play of curtailing China’s influence. Another’s benefit to the US is that many consumers of Arab oil now has to sign years long contracts to buy oil from the US. But sure, it’s Israel. Edit: see US’s recent moves in the straight of Malaka and Gibraltar.