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The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global ec

by pjc50 29d ago

The war(s), especially with the impact on pipelines and the Houthis taking over more of Yemen, are finally affecting fuel prices and hence turning the global economic outlook less positive. You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining.

danans 29d ago
> You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining. What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC. It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs. Apparently the main reason they have started buying crude again is not for internal consumption as much as taking advantage of the massive crack spread in refined petroleum products (like diesel) which they export.
- ethagnawl 29d ago
  > It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs. From a distance, those look like pretty sound theories. It's wild that the pols and talking heads in the US have been screeching about how "dangerous" China is since the 90s (I remember family members making crude jokes about why I should be learning Mandarin instead of Spanish in middle school) and, yet, here we are doing everything we can to hand them the reins of world power.
  - CursedSilicon 29d ago
    As The Onion put it eons ago [1] "There's no shame in being second best!" [1] https://youtu.be/53tGLKlsQv8 https://youtu.be/53tGLKlsQv8
- pjc50 29d ago
  > China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves I think the easiest explanation is that this probably isn't true. The US SPR is underground, it would be quite easy for China to manage its equivalent in secret, for whatever reasons. The Chinese EV shift is real and significant, though.
- debo_ 29d ago
  > massive crack spread
- CharlesDodgson 29d ago
  China has slowed replenishing its reserves as it'd prefer to buy on dips. It's dipping in at times, not releasing barrels to the open market. https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/china-draws-crude-inventories-august-refinery-runs-rise-2026-09-15 https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/chi...
- mono442 29d ago
  EVs are a minority in China outside of a few biggest cities.
  - danans 29d ago
    > EVs are a minority in China outside of a few biggest cities Those biggest cities are majorly influential in absolute energy demand and also patterns of use. The second tier cities will be buying the big cities used EVs in not too long.
whateveracct 29d ago
Not just reserves, but also all the oil already on ships slowly making its way to its destination. I think I even saw someone predict that around September, the oil issue would get worse due to how slowly those ships move.
- Onewildgamer 29d ago
  Are you referring to this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf3rHAXOZj0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf3rHAXOZj0
deleted 29d ago
[deleted]
geoka9 29d ago
> turning the global economic outlook less positive Specifically, mounting inflation expectations, no? Investors wouldn't want to park their money at 4% if they expect inflation that is close or higher than that.

by pjc50 29d ago

danans 29d ago

> You can print money, but you can only ""print"" oil for a short time from reserves, which the US and China have been draining. What's different between the two is that apparently China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves, despite no significant reduction in travel, and despite reducing its import demand by 1 OPEC. It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs. Apparently the main reason they have started buying crude again is not for internal consumption as much as taking advantage of the massive crack spread in refined petroleum products (like diesel) which they export.

ethagnawl 29d ago
> It's not entirely clear how - but theories include shifts from flights to train travel and shifts from gasoline cars to EVs. From a distance, those look like pretty sound theories. It's wild that the pols and talking heads in the US have been screeching about how "dangerous" China is since the 90s (I remember family members making crude jokes about why I should be learning Mandarin instead of Spanish in middle school) and, yet, here we are doing everything we can to hand them the reins of world power.
- CursedSilicon 29d ago
  As The Onion put it eons ago [1] "There's no shame in being second best!" [1] https://youtu.be/53tGLKlsQv8 https://youtu.be/53tGLKlsQv8
pjc50 29d ago
> China hasn't made an equivalent dent in its oil reserves I think the easiest explanation is that this probably isn't true. The US SPR is underground, it would be quite easy for China to manage its equivalent in secret, for whatever reasons. The Chinese EV shift is real and significant, though.
debo_ 29d ago
> massive crack spread
CharlesDodgson 29d ago
China has slowed replenishing its reserves as it'd prefer to buy on dips. It's dipping in at times, not releasing barrels to the open market. https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/china-draws-crude-inventories-august-refinery-runs-rise-2026-09-15 https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/chi...
mono442 29d ago
EVs are a minority in China outside of a few biggest cities.
- danans 29d ago
  > EVs are a minority in China outside of a few biggest cities Those biggest cities are majorly influential in absolute energy demand and also patterns of use. The second tier cities will be buying the big cities used EVs in not too long.

whateveracct 29d ago

Not just reserves, but also all the oil already on ships slowly making its way to its destination. I think I even saw someone predict that around September, the oil issue would get worse due to how slowly those ships move.

Onewildgamer 29d ago
Are you referring to this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf3rHAXOZj0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jf3rHAXOZj0

deleted 29d ago

[deleted]

geoka9 29d ago

> turning the global economic outlook less positive Specifically, mounting inflation expectations, no? Investors wouldn't want to park their money at 4% if they expect inflation that is close or higher than that.